- China: Industrial Profits (Mar); Philippines: Tourist Arrivals (Feb); Korea: GDP (Q1)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts and Statistical Balance Sheet (Mar); Australia: Import and Export Price Indexes (Q1)
- Japan: Input Output Prices, International Trade, Lease Contracts (Mar), First 10 Days Trade (Apr)
- France: INSEE Household Survey (Apr), Registered Unemployed & Job
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller June 6, 2016
The National Association for Business Economics projects 2.3% real U.S. economic growth next year, little changed from its last estimate of 2.4% growth. This year's estimate was reduced, however, to 1.8% from 2.2%, and from 2.6% projected in December. The gains follow a 2.4% rise in both 2015 and 2014. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to range between 2.2% and 2.5%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures is expected to moderate to 2.5% next year following a lessened 2.6% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2015. Nevertheless, these remain the strongest yearly gains since 2006. Real net exports are expected to deteriorate next year, producing another drag on U.S. GDP growth as import growth of 5.0% outpaces the 3.5% gain in exports. The rate of inventory investment is expected to ease to the slowest since 2011. Growth of 7.4% next year in residential investment compares to 9.6% in 2016, continuing to be the economy's strongest sector.
Housing starts are expected to average 1.36 million after a slightly lowered 2016 estimate of 1.21 million. Expected light vehicle sales of 17.3 million units next year followed a lowered estimate of 17.3 million this year. Average monthly gains in payroll employment are expected to ease to 192,000 from 201,000 in 2016, both of which were raised slightly. Expectations for the unemployment rate of 4.7% next year compared to a raised estimate of 4.8% in 2016. Consumer price inflation is expected to average 2.2% next year, the quickest rate of increase since 2011. The core PCE price index should rise 1.9% next year, unrevised from the previous expectation and the strongest gain since 2011.
The forecasted 2.73% interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes at the end of next year was reduced from 3.07%, and follows a lessened 2.25% estimate at the end of this year. The Fed is expected to continue raising the federal funds rate to a lessened 1.63% by the end of next year. Corporate profits next year should rise 3.9% following a reduced 2.0% decline forecasted this year. The Federal government budget deficit is expected to be $542 billion in 2017, roughly one-third its $1.4 trillion peak in 2009.
The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Current Conditions and the Outlook for the U.S. Economy is the title of today's speech by Janet L. Yellen here.
|National Association For Business Economics||2017||2016||2015||2014|
|Real GDP (% Chg. SAAR)||2.3||1.8||2.4||2.4|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.5||2.6||3.1||2.7|
|Change in Real Business Inventories (Bil. $)||55.6||54.5||97.5||68.0|
|Real Net Exports (Bil. $)||-625.5||-582.6||-543.4||-442.5|
|Housing Starts (Mil. Units)||1.36||1.21||1.11||1.00|
|Light Vehicle Sales (Mil. Units)||17.3||17.3||17.4||16.4|
|Payroll Employment Average Monthly Change (000s)||192||201||229||251|
|Unemployment Rate (%)||4.7||4.8||5.3||6.2|
|Consumer Price Index (Y/Y %)||2.2||1.3||0.1||1.6|
|Fed Funds Rate (%, Year-End)||1.63||0.87||0.38||0.13|
|10-Year Treasury Note (%, Year-End)||2.73||2.25||2.27||2.17|