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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens This Fiscal Year
by Tom Moeller  June 10, 2016

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $52.5 billion budget deficit during May of 2016, smaller than the $84.1 billion deficit twelve months earlier. So far in FY'16, however, the budget deficit totaled $407.1 billion, up 11.0% versus $366.8 billion in the first eight months of FY'15. A $60.0 billion deficit in May had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Overall revenues increased 1.7% so far in FY'16 versus the first eight months of FY'15. The gain was pulled lower by an 11.3% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes grew a diminished 2.3% y/y. Social insurance contributions increased 2.7% y/y while excise taxes edged 1.8% lower y/y.

Government spending increased 4.4% y/y so far in FY'16. Outlays on health programs gained 7.2% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Veterans Benefits & Services rose 5.4% y/y. Medicare payments strengthened 4.4% y/y while Social Security benefits rose 3.4% y/y. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services gained 2.7% y/y, but income security payments eased -0.2% y/y. National Defense Spending declined 1.1% y/y. Interest payments increased 10.6% so far this fiscal year versus last year.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance May 2016 FY'15 FY'14 FY'13 FY'12
Budget Balance -- -$52.5 bil. -$438.9 bil. -$483.4 bil. -$680.2 bil. -$1,089.2 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- 2.6 ytd 2.5 2.8 4.1 6.8
% of Total
Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) 100 1.7% 7.6% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 2.3 10.5 5.9 16.3 3.7
  Corporate Income Taxes 11 -11.3 7.2 17.3 12.9 33.8
  Social Insurance Taxes 33 2.7 4.1 8.0 12.1 3.2
  Excise Taxes 3 -1.8 5.3 11.1 6.3 9.2
Net Outlays  (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) 100 4.4 5.2 1.4 -2.4 -1.7
  National Defense 16 -1.1 -2.3 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9
  Health 13 7.2 17.8 14.3 3.3 -7.0
  Medicare 15 4.4 6.7 2.8 5.5 -2.8
  Income Security 14 -0.2 -0.9 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1
  Social Security 24 3.4 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.8
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 5.4 6.8 7.7 11.5 -2.0
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 2.7 34.7 25.9 -21.9 -10.3
  Interest 6 10.6 -1.8 2.8 0.4 -3.0
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