- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago declined to -0.51 during May, following one month in positive territory. It suggested below-trend overall economic growth. The three month moving average reinforced this notion by being in negative territory since February 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the component series declined last month. The Production & Income reading fell sharply to -0.32, its lowest point in six months. The Personal Consumption & Housing figure declined to -0.09. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure also fell to -0.09, the weakest reading in nine months. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure was fairly steady at -0.01. The Fed reported that 28 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 57 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||May||Apr||Mar||May '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||-0.51||0.05||-0.64||-0.33||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.36||-0.25||-0.20||-0.11||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.09||-0.02||-0.12||-0.05||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.09||-0.06||-0.07||0.03||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||-0.32||0.13||-0.46||-0.10||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||-0.01||0.00||0.01||-0.20||-0.02||0.04||0.02|