- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller June 28, 2016
Economic growth during the first quarter was revised up slightly. GDP grew 1.1% (SAAR, 2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise estimated last month, and 0.5% in the advance estimate. Despite the revisions, growth last quarter was the weakest in a year. Slight improvement in the foreign trade deficit fueled the upward revision to growth. Nevertheless, the moderation in real economic growth during Q1 remained primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a decline in business investment. GDP's increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The GDP price index increased at a slightly reduced 0.4% rate (1.2% y/y). It was the weakest gain in four quarters and compared to expectations for a 0.8% rise.
After-tax corporate profits increased 3.3%, revised from 1.9%, without both inventory and depreciation allowances. Nevertheless, profits remained 2.3% lower than one year earlier due to declines in Q4 and Q3. Profits before tax without IVA & CCA increased 1.8% (-4.3% y/y). U.S. nonfinancial industry earnings increased 6.4% (-3.5% y/y), but financial industry profits declined 3.0% (+0.3% y/y). Profits earned abroad fell 7.2% (-11.4% y/y).
Improvement in the foreign trade account added 0.1 percentage point to overall economic growth versus 0.2 points subtracted in the last report. Exports increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), revised from a 2.0% drop. Goods exports gained 1.1% (0.2% y/y), revised from a 2.6% decline, while services exports eased a little-revised 1.1% (+2.5% y/y). Imports edged 0.5% lower (+1.0% y/y), about as estimated last month. Goods imports fell 1.3% (+0.5% y/y), but services imports rose 3.1% (3.3% y/y) with more U.S. citizens traveling abroad. Inventory decumulation subtracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, as previously estimated. It was the third consecutive subtraction.
Growth in domestic final sales of 1.2% (2.4% y/y) was unrevised. It remained the weakest advance since Q2 2013.
Business spending declined at a 4.5% rate, revised from -6.2%, its second consecutive fall. Investment in structures fell 7.9% (-3.6% y/y). Equipment investment declined 8.7% (-0.3% y/y) while intellectual property product buying increased a strengthened 4.4% (2.9% y/y). Continuing firm was residential investment which grew a lessened 15.6% (10.8% y/y).
Consumer spending growth of 1.5% last quarter was reduced from 1.9%, and was its weakest rise in two years. Growth was held back by a 12.3% decline (-1.7% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases as well as a 1.1% drop (+1.7% y/y) in apparel buying. To the upside was spending on recreational goods & vehicles, which rose 9.6% (10.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings & appliances increased 3.6% (5.6% y/y) and gasoline buying rose 6.0% (2.0% y/y). In the services area, spending growth was revised lower to 2.1% (2.4% y/y). It reflected a 0.2% dip (+4.4% y/y) in transportation and a 2.2% increase (3.9% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations. This gain was down from 7.2% growth in Q2'15. Spending on housing & utilities grew 1.6% (0.0% y/y).
Spending by governments rose at a little-changed 1.3% rate. Federal spending declined 1.6% (+0.2% y/y), held back by a 3.8% decline (-0.5% y/y) in defense buying. State & local government purchases grew at an accelerated 3.2% rate (2.2% y/y).
Pricing behavior was constrained by economic weakness. GDP price index growth of 0.4% was less than initially indicated, and reflected an easier 0.2% rise (1.0% y/y) in the personal spending price index. Nondurable goods prices fell 5.6% (-1.2% y/y) with the decline in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices were off 1.0% (-1.3% y/y), but services prices rose an improved 2.3% (2.1% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 0.2% both q/q and y/y. Residential investment prices gained 2.0% (1.5% y/y) while government sector prices eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q1'16 (Third Estimate)||Q1'16 (Second Estimate)||Q1'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q1'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.1||0.8||0.5||1.4||2.0||2.1||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||0.1||-0.2||-0.3||-0.1||-0.3||0.0||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.2||1.2||1.2||1.7||2.9||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.5||1.9||1.9||2.4||3.0||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-4.5||-6.2||-5.9||-2.1||2.6||-0.0||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.2||0.3||0.3||0.3||1.3||1.0||0.3||1.4||1.4|