- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller June 28, 2016
Economic growth during the first quarter was revised up slightly. GDP grew 1.1% (SAAR, 2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise estimated last month, and 0.5% in the advance estimate. Despite the revisions, growth last quarter was the weakest in a year. Slight improvement in the foreign trade deficit fueled the upward revision to growth. Nevertheless, the moderation in real economic growth during Q1 remained primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a decline in business investment. GDP's increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The GDP price index increased at a slightly reduced 0.4% rate (1.2% y/y). It was the weakest gain in four quarters and compared to expectations for a 0.8% rise.
After-tax corporate profits increased 3.3%, revised from 1.9%, without both inventory and depreciation allowances. Nevertheless, profits remained 2.3% lower than one year earlier due to declines in Q4 and Q3. Profits before tax without IVA & CCA increased 1.8% (-4.3% y/y). U.S. nonfinancial industry earnings increased 6.4% (-3.5% y/y), but financial industry profits declined 3.0% (+0.3% y/y). Profits earned abroad fell 7.2% (-11.4% y/y).
Improvement in the foreign trade account added 0.1 percentage point to overall economic growth versus 0.2 points subtracted in the last report. Exports increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), revised from a 2.0% drop. Goods exports gained 1.1% (0.2% y/y), revised from a 2.6% decline, while services exports eased a little-revised 1.1% (+2.5% y/y). Imports edged 0.5% lower (+1.0% y/y), about as estimated last month. Goods imports fell 1.3% (+0.5% y/y), but services imports rose 3.1% (3.3% y/y) with more U.S. citizens traveling abroad. Inventory decumulation subtracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth, as previously estimated. It was the third consecutive subtraction.
Growth in domestic final sales of 1.2% (2.4% y/y) was unrevised. It remained the weakest advance since Q2 2013.
Business spending declined at a 4.5% rate, revised from -6.2%, its second consecutive fall. Investment in structures fell 7.9% (-3.6% y/y). Equipment investment declined 8.7% (-0.3% y/y) while intellectual property product buying increased a strengthened 4.4% (2.9% y/y). Continuing firm was residential investment which grew a lessened 15.6% (10.8% y/y).
Consumer spending growth of 1.5% last quarter was reduced from 1.9%, and was its weakest rise in two years. Growth was held back by a 12.3% decline (-1.7% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts purchases as well as a 1.1% drop (+1.7% y/y) in apparel buying. To the upside was spending on recreational goods & vehicles, which rose 9.6% (10.3% y/y). Spending on home furnishings & appliances increased 3.6% (5.6% y/y) and gasoline buying rose 6.0% (2.0% y/y). In the services area, spending growth was revised lower to 2.1% (2.4% y/y). It reflected a 0.2% dip (+4.4% y/y) in transportation and a 2.2% increase (3.9% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations. This gain was down from 7.2% growth in Q2'15. Spending on housing & utilities grew 1.6% (0.0% y/y).
Spending by governments rose at a little-changed 1.3% rate. Federal spending declined 1.6% (+0.2% y/y), held back by a 3.8% decline (-0.5% y/y) in defense buying. State & local government purchases grew at an accelerated 3.2% rate (2.2% y/y).
Pricing behavior was constrained by economic weakness. GDP price index growth of 0.4% was less than initially indicated, and reflected an easier 0.2% rise (1.0% y/y) in the personal spending price index. Nondurable goods prices fell 5.6% (-1.2% y/y) with the decline in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices were off 1.0% (-1.3% y/y), but services prices rose an improved 2.3% (2.1% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 0.2% both q/q and y/y. Residential investment prices gained 2.0% (1.5% y/y) while government sector prices eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q1'16 (Third Estimate)||Q1'16 (Second Estimate)||Q1'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q4'15||Q3'15||Q1'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.1||0.8||0.5||1.4||2.0||2.1||2.4||2.4||1.5|
|Foreign Trade Effect||0.1||-0.2||-0.3||-0.1||-0.3||0.0||-0.6||-0.1||0.2|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.2||1.2||1.2||1.7||2.9||2.4||2.8||2.8||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.5||1.9||1.9||2.4||3.0||2.6||3.1||2.7||1.7|
|Business Fixed Investment||-4.5||-6.2||-5.9||-2.1||2.6||-0.0||2.9||6.2||3.0|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.2||0.3||0.3||0.3||1.3||1.0||0.3||1.4||1.4|