- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller June 28, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 6.1% during June to 98.0 (-1.8% y/y) from 92.4, revised from 92.6. The latest figure was the highest since October and beat expectations for 93.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 improved sharply to the highest level since October 2000. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years also rose to the highest level since October. Working lower was confidence amongst respondents over age 55. It declined to the lowest level since May 2014.
The present situations reading for confidence overall increased 4.5% (7.3% y/y) to 118.3, the highest level in nine months. The expectations figure gained 7.6% (-8.9% y/y) to 84.5, down 12.9% from the January 2015 high.
The present situation improvement reflected a jump in the perception that business conditions were good. It also reflected a drop, however, in the perception that jobs were plentiful. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a diminished 23.3% of respondents. The expectations figure increased due a rise in perception that business conditions would improve. Expectations that there would be more jobs firmed to the highest point since October, and an elevated percentage thought that income would increase.
Expectations for the inflation rate declined m/m to 4.7% and reversed increases since February. Higher interest rates were expected by 58.9% of respondents, remaining down sharply versus 72.6% in January.
Plans to buy a new home rose sharply to the highest level in six months. Major appliance buying plans, however, deteriorated. Intentions to buy a new car remained elevated.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Do Macro Variables Help Forecast Interest Rates? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Jun||May||Apr||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||98.0||92.4||94.7||-1.8||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||132.1||110.3||121.3||17.2||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||106.1||98.5||99.1||1.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||73.3||77.5||81.8||-17.8||84.0||73.8||61.2|