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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
by Tom Moeller  June 30, 2016

Initial jobless insurance claims increased to 268,000 (-4.3% y/y) during the week ended June 25 from 258,000 in the prior week, revised from 259,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims remained steady at 266,750. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.

In the week ending June 18, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.120 million (-6.7% y/y) from 2.140 million. Claims were near the lowest level since 2000. The four-week moving average fell to 2.134 million.

The insured rate of unemployment eased to a record low of 1.5%.

Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.37%), Florida (0.64%), Indiana (0.76%), Tennessee (0.80%), Virginia (0.86%) and South Carolina (0.89%). At the high end of the scale were Texas (1.66%), Massachusetts (1.77%), Nevada (1.79%), Illinois (1.96%), New Jersey (2.22%) and Pennsylvania (2.25%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Monetary Policy Transmission before and after the Crisis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/25/16 06/18/16 06/11/16 Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Initial Claims 268 258 277 -4.3% 277 307 342
Continuing Claims -- 2,120 2,140 -6.7 2,268 2,607 2,978
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.5 1.6

1.7
(June 2015)

1.7 2.0 2.3
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