- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2016
Factory sector activity continues to firm following last year's weakness. The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing activity increased to 53.2 during June following an unrevised May gain to 51.3. The latest level was the highest since February 2015, after falling as low as 48.0 in December. June's level beat expectations for 51.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the ISM index and the q/q changed in real GDP.
Each of the component series improved last month, led by the inventories index which rose to a 9-month high. That was followed by the production series which recovered most of what it lost during the prior two months. At 57.0, the new orders series improved to the highest level since December 2014. The vendor deliveries showed the slowest delivery speeds since December 2014. The employment series, at 50.4, indicated payroll expansion for the first time since November. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the figure and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index eased moderately m/m, but at 60.5 remained near a two-year high. Twenty-seven percent of industries reported higher prices while 6% reported that prices fell.
Other component series, not included in the composite reading, also showed improved performance. The export figure increased to 53.5, the highest level since November 2014. The imports index strengthened to 52.0. The order backlog index jumped to 52.5, the highest level since May of last year.
The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The Science of Monetary Policy: An Imperfect Knowledge Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Jun||May||Apr||Jun '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||60.5||63.5||59.0||49.5||39.8||55.6||53.8|