- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller July 6, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) strengthened to 56.5 during June versus an unrevised 52.9 in May. It was the highest level since November. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 53.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure released Friday. It surged to 56.1, the highest level since October. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Amongst the component series there was broad-based strength last month. The business activity reading rebounded to 59.5, the highest in six months, while new orders recovered their May drop. The supplier delivery series jumped to 54.0 and indicated the slowest product delivery speeds since March of last year. The employment index recovered most of May's decline and moved above break-even to 52.7. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls.
The prices paid series remained fairly stable at 55.5, near the highest level since September 2014. Twenty percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while five percent paid less.
The export order series rebounded to 53.0, but remained well below last July's high. The imports price series was stable at 54.0. The order backlog figure dropped sharply to 47.5, the lowest level since December 2013. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Jun||May||Apr||Jun'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||56.5||52.9||55.7||56.2||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||54.0||52.5||51.0||51.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|