- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller July 6, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) strengthened to 56.5 during June versus an unrevised 52.9 in May. It was the highest level since November. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 53.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure released Friday. It surged to 56.1, the highest level since October. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Amongst the component series there was broad-based strength last month. The business activity reading rebounded to 59.5, the highest in six months, while new orders recovered their May drop. The supplier delivery series jumped to 54.0 and indicated the slowest product delivery speeds since March of last year. The employment index recovered most of May's decline and moved above break-even to 52.7. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls.
The prices paid series remained fairly stable at 55.5, near the highest level since September 2014. Twenty percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while five percent paid less.
The export order series rebounded to 53.0, but remained well below last July's high. The imports price series was stable at 54.0. The order backlog figure dropped sharply to 47.5, the lowest level since December 2013. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Jun||May||Apr||Jun'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||56.5||52.9||55.7||56.2||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||54.0||52.5||51.0||51.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|