- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Robert Brusca July 11, 2016
The Bank of France business indicator is flat in June, hovering just outside the lower one-third ranking in its historic queue of data. Expected production is back up in June after posting a negative survey value in May and sits in its lower 21st percentile of its queue of data since November 1989. Expected production made strong strides until 2015/2016 when it settled down and has been moving sideways at this still historically weak level around a survey value of zero.
Order books continue to improve showing a 63rd percentile standing, the strongest relative standing of any component except for employment. Both foreign and new orders moved higher in June compared to their May values; both of these series still have a queue standing in their lower 40th percentile.
Capacity use slipped in June with the drop in output. Capacity utilization has an extremely weak 23rd percentile standing.
The employment reading posted a weaker month-to-month survey value and expected employment slipped and posted a negative reading. Still, the queue standings for both employment and expected employment are relatively firm in the mid-to-upper 70th percentile of their respective historic queues.
Despite these overall weak standings, the Bank of France finds these results consistent with another 0.2% gain in GDP in the second quarter; this is the same as its estimate made last month.
Today the IMF trimmed its outlook for euro area growth to 1.4% from 1.6%, a small setback for the current year. The slight cut back in the IMF's forecast stands in contrast to statements about the draconian nature of the risk of Brexit uttered before the vote. Italy in May saw its industrial output fall by 0.6%. The upshot is that globally growth is still without traction and with a weak outlook.