- US: GDP & Corporate Profits (Q4, 3rd release)
- Canada: Industrial Products & Raw Material Prices (Feb)
- Spain: Flash HICP and CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Mar)
- Euro area: EC Business and Consumer Surveys (Mar)
- Belize: GDP (Q4)
- Chile: IP (Feb); Brazil: Retail Trade - Rebased 2014=100 (Jan)
- Croatia: Employment, Retail Trade Press (Feb), Earnings (Jan); Bulgaria: PPI (Feb); Montenegro: Wages (Feb); Latvia: Retail Trade (Jan); Lithuania: External Debt Service (Q4);
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial jobless insurance applications fell to 258,000 (-3.1% y/y) during the week ended March 25...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump
The NAR reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2016
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.7% during June to 94.5 following an unrevised 0.2% May rise.
An improved -9% of firms were expecting the economy to improve, the best reading since October, and a slightly increased 2% were expecting higher real sales in six months. Twenty six percent were planning to raise capital expenditures. To the downside was the percentage reporting that now was a good time to expand the business.
Employment prospects dimmed slightly. Eleven percent of firms expected to increase employment, down slightly m/m. A steady 48% of respondents found few or no qualified candidates to fill job openings, equaling the most since September 2007. An increased 29% of firms had positions they were not able to fill right now, equaling the most of the economic expansion. A lessened 22% of firms raised worker compensation over the last twelve months, and a diminished 14% were expecting to raise it in the next three months.
Small businesses' pricing ability improved as 2% of firms were raising prices, the most since November. Expectations about the future ability to raise prices remained unchanged.
Credit was slightly harder to get as 5% reported trouble, the least in six months. An increased 32% of firms felt satisfied that their borrowing needs had been filled in the last three months.
A stable 23% of firms indicated that taxes were the single most important problem, the most since last June. A slightly increased 19% reported that government requirements were the largest single problem. A lessened 11% of firms indicated that poor sales were the largest single problem, but a higher 15% felt challenged by the quality of labor. A lessened 7% reported insurance cost & availability as the largest hurdle, and an increased nine percent reported competition from large businesses as the largest problem. A slightly higher six percent reported the cost of labor was the biggest problem. Inflation was indicated by 2% of respondents as the largest problem, matching the least since November.
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|National Federation of Independent Business (SA, Net %)||Jun||May||Apr||Jun'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)||94.5||93.8||93.6||94.6||96.1||95.6||92.4|
|Firms Reporting Now is a Good Time To Expand the Business||8||9||8||10||11||10||7|
|Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months||2||1||1||5||8||11||4|
|Firms Expecting Economy To Improve||-9||-13||-18||-8||-5||-5||-15|
|Firms Planning to Increase Employment||11||12||11||9||12||10||6|
|Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings||48||48||46||44||46||43||39|
|Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get||5||4||5||4||4||6||6|
|Firms Raising Average Selling Prices||2||1||-1||2||2||8||2|