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Economy in Brief

U.S. Import Price Increase Driven by Oil Costs; Nonoil Prices Ease
by Tom Moeller  July 13, 2016

Import prices rose 0.2% (-4.8% y/y) during June following a 1.4% surge in May. It was the smallest increase since a decline in February and fell short of expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.

A 6.4% rise in petroleum import prices (-26.6% y/y) was the smallest rise in four months. Nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.3% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Nonoil industrial supplies & materials costs eased 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) following a 1.5% surge. Foods, feeds & beverage costs declined 1.3% (-2.5% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) and reversed May's increase. Capital goods prices fell 0.3% (-2.1y/y) after remaining unchanged. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors eased 0.1% (-1.6% y/y).

Export prices increased 0.8% (-3.5% y/y) following a 1.2% jump, revised from 1.1%. A 0.4% increase had been expected.

Agricultural commodity prices surged 2.4% (-1.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Nonagricultural commodity prices improved 0.5% (-3.8% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 2.5% (-0.4% y/y) following a 3.0% gain. Industrial supplies & materials costs also jumped 2.1% (-9.6% y/y) after a 3.0% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.4% (-2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) following no change. Motor vehicle & parts prices remained unchanged (-0.8% y/y) for the third straight month.

The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve covering regional economic conditions can be found here.

Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Imports - All Commodities 0.2 1.4 0.7 -4.8 -10.2 -1.1 -1.1
  Petroleum 6.4 16.3 10.6 -26.6 -46.0 -5.6 -2.6
  Nonpetroleum -0.3 0.4 0.1 -2.0 -2.8 0.1 -0.6
Exports - All Commodities 0.8 1.2 0.4 -3.5 -6.3 -0.5 -0.4
  Agricultural 2.4 2.9 0.8 -1.4 -13.3 -2.7 1.6
  Nonagricultural 0.5 1.0 0.4 -3.8 -5.5 -0.3 -0.7
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