- Korea: GDP (Q4); Thailand Auto Sales (Feb)
- Turkey: Capacity Utilization, Business Tendency survey (Mar); South Africa: Tourism & Migration (Jan), Manufacturing Survey (Q1)
- Croatia: Tourism (Jan); Montenegro: Foreign Trade (Feb); Czech Republic: CPI by COICOP (Feb), Registered Employment (Q4); Kazakhstan: Loans & Deposits (Feb); Slovenia: Business Cycle Indicators (Mar); Russia: Employment by Industry (Q4);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2016
So far in FY'16, the federal government's budget deficit totaled $400.8 billion, up 26.7% versus $316.4 billion in the first nine months of FY'15. That result was highlighted in today's U.S. Treasury Department report of a $6.3 billion budget surplus during June, reduced from the $50.5 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $23.5 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 0.9% so far in FY'16 versus the first nine months of FY'15. The gain was pulled lower by a 12.6% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes grew a negligible 0.4% y/y. Social insurance contributions increased 4.2% y/y while excise taxes fell 1.9% y/y.
Government spending increased 3.9% y/y so far in FY'16 compared to a 5.2% rise last year. Outlays on health programs gained 6.5% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Veterans Benefits & Services rose 5.3% y/y. Medicare payments strengthened 4.3% y/y while Social Security benefits rose 3.3% y/y. National Defense Spending fell 1.1% y/y, continuing the declines of the last several years. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services eased 0.6% y/y, and income security payments fell 0.2% y/y. Interest payments increased 11.9% so far this fiscal year versus 2015.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
|United States Government Finance||June 2016||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||$6.3 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||2.2% ytd||2.5%||2.8%||4.1%||6.8%|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||0.9%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||0.4||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-12.6||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||4.2||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||3.9||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||5.3||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-0.6||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|