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Economy in Brief
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NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
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by Tom Moeller July 15, 2016
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during June (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% May gain, revised from 0.5%. The rise compared to expectations for 0.1% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Healthy increases in sales were broad-based. Overall retail sales excluding autos gained 0.7% (3.2% y/y). A 0.4% rise had been expected. Sales in the retail control group, which also excludes gasoline, building supplies and food services, rose a steady 0.5% (4.1% y/y). This figure is used in the computation of the GDP.
Retail sales increased 0.7% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. The gain was lifted by a 1.2% rise in gasoline service station sales with higher prices. Motor vehicle & parts sales improved 0.1% (1.0% y/y) after a 0.5% decline. That compares to a 4.5% decline in unit vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles jumped 0.9% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.4% increase.
Building material & garden equipment sales surged 3.9% (7.6% y/y) and made up declines during the prior three months. Sales at nonstore retailers firmed 1.1% (14.2% y/y), the fifth month this year of outsized increases. Sporting goods store sales increased 0.8% (6.8% y/y) after a 1.3% jump. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores increased 0.5% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% easing. General merchandise store sales improved 0.4% (-0.2% y/y) and made up the prior month's fall. On the weak side, clothing store sales declined 1.0% (-0.9% y/y) and reversed the May increase. Restaurant sales eased 0.3% (+4.9% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Electronics & appliance store sales remained unchanged (-4.7% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal store sales improved 0.7% (8.4% y/y) following a 0.6% rise while food & beverage store sales gained 0.5% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.4% rise.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
|Retail Spending (%)||Jun||May||Apr||Jun Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Total Retail Sales & Food Services||0.6||0.2||1.2||2.7||2.3||4.1||3.8|
|Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group)||0.5||0.5||1.1||4.1||3.3||4.0||2.9|
|Motor Vehicle & Parts||0.1||-0.5||2.6||1.0||6.5||6.4||8.3|
|Retail Less Autos||0.9||0.4||1.0||2.9||0.2||3.2||2.6|
|Food Service & Drinking Places Sales||-0.3||0.5||0.2||4.9||8.0||6.1||3.7|