- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Sandy Batten July 15, 2016
Total business inventories edged up 0.2% m/m (1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% m/m increase in April. Total business sales slowed to a 0.2% m/m rise (-1.4% y/y) in May after a 0.8% m/m jump in April (revised down slightly from the initially reported 0.9% m/m gain).
The new information in today's release was for retail inventories. Manufacturing and wholesale inventories had already been reported. Manufacturing inventories were down 0.1% in May (their eleventh consecutive monthly decline) while wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m, their third consecutive monthly increase following five consecutive monthly declines.
Retail inventories rose 0.5% m/m in May (6.0% y/y) after an unexpected 0.1% m/m decline in April. Before the April decline, retail inventories had risen for ten consecutive months. In May, retail inventories excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) with increases across all major categories. Inventories of motor vehicles and parts jumped 0.7% m/m in May after having been unchanged in April.
Sales were generally up across sectors in May. Retail sales added a 0.2%m/m gain in May (revised down from the initially reported 0.4% m/m increase) to the 1.4% m/m jump recorded in April. Adding the June figure for retail sales (a 0.6% m/m increase reported today separately from this release), retail sales in the second quarter were up 6.2% at an annual rate from the first quarter, pointing to a sharp rebound in household consumption in 2Q from the weak performance in 1Q. Wholesale sales rose a solid 0.5% m/m in May after a downwardly revised 0.8% m/m gain in April, their third consecutive significant increase after four straight monthly declines. Manufacturing sales were essentially unchanged in May from April, after solid gains in March (+0.3% m/m) and April (+0.4% m/m).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the business sector remained at 1.40 in May. In April, it had edged down from 1.41, the highest since the economy exited recession in 2009. Inventory-to-sales ratios were also unchanged in May from April for retailers (1.50) and manufacturers (1.36)-but again down from February/March levels that were the highest in the current economic expansion. The inventory-to-sales ratio for wholesalers edged down to 1.35 in May from 1.36 in April, its fourth consecutive unchanged or lower monthly reading.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
|Manufacturing & Trade||May||Apr||Mar||May Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Business Inventories (% chg)||0.2||0.1||0.3||1.0||1.3||3.7||3.9|
|Retail excl. Motor Vehicles||0.4||-0.2||0.1||3.4||4.1||2.6||4.8|
|Business Sales (% chg)|
|Retail excl. Motor Vehicles||0.4||0.9||0.5||2.1||0.2||3.2||2.6|
|Retail excl. Motor Vehicles||1.28||1.28||1.29||1.26||1.27||1.24||1.23|