- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller July 18, 2016
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo eased to 59 in July from an unrevised 60 in June. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years there has been an 72% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present conditions in the housing market fell to 63 from 64 while the index for the next six months declined to 66 from 69. Both readings have been falling since their Q4'15 peaks.
Home builders reported that the traffic index also eased to 45 from 46, and remained below the Q4'15 high.
Movement in the regional indexes varied greatly. The index for the Northeast rose moderately m/m, but remained down sharply y/y. The West index rose slightly m/m, and sharply y/y. In the Midwest, the activity index also gained modestly m/m, but was down y/y. The index for the South fell m/m and y/y.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
Forecasting Interest Rates over the Long Run from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|National Association of Home Builders||Jul||Jun||May||Jul'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||59||60||58||60||59||52||51|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||63||64||63||65||64||56||55|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||66||69||65||70||66||61||58|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||45||46||44||43||43||39||39|