- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller July 21, 2016
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index declined in July to -2.9 from an unrevised 4.7 in June. Despite the lower reading, it remained up from December's low of -10.2. The increase compared to expectations for 4.7 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Moving the other way, the ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index, constructed by Haver Analytics increased to 49.9 from 46.0, though both readings continued to indicate declining activity. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
The decline in the Philadelphia Fed index was similar to the lower Empire State reading, released Friday. A lower prices paid index provided downward pressure on the overall index, as it fell to the lowest level since March. A lessened seventeen percent of respondents paid higher prices, while a higher seven percent paid less. The prices received measure also retreated to the lowest level since February.
Amongst the other components, the new orders and shipments indexes improved. Employment remained negative, although the rate of decline eased. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing payrolls.
The future business activity index improved moderately. Unfilled orders, inventories, employment and prices paid rose.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA)||Jul||Jun||May||Jul'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||-2.9||4.7||-1.8||0.7||3.6||18.3||6.1|
|ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions||49.9||46.0||47.6||48.5||49.4||53.7||50.0|
|Number of Employees||-1.6||-10.9||-3.3||-2.6||3.9||10.5||1.4|