- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller July 21, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during June (0.7% y/y), following an unrevised 0.2% May decline. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month change in the index improved to 2.3% (AR), but was still below its peak growth of 7.1% roughly one year ago. Lower initial claims for unemployment insurance had the largest positive impact on the total index followed by a steeper interest rate yield curve. The leading credit index also increased and most other components posted modest gains. A shorter average workweek provided the only negative influence on the total.
The coincident index increased 0.3% (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised no change. Three-month growth increased to 1.8% (AR). Each of the component series, including nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively to the index.
The lagging index eased 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain. Three month growth declined sharply to 2.0%. A shorter average duration of unemployment, fewer C&I loans outstanding and lessened growth in unit labor costs had the largest negative effects on the index. These were offset by faster growth in the services CPI, a higher consumer credit-to-income ratio and a higher inventory-to-sales ratio.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio rose and reversed the prior month's decline, which was to the lowest level since 1961.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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