- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller July 21, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago increased to 0.16 during June from -0.56 in May. Nevertheless, it still suggested below-trend overall economic growth. The three-month moving average reinforced this notion by remaining in negative territory. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Improvement in the component series was limited. The Production & Income reading rose sharply to 0.18, its highest point since last July. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure increased to 0.06, the strongest reading since January. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure rose slightly while the Personal Consumption & Housing reading was steady. The Fed reported that 40 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 45 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Jun||May||Apr||Jun '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||0.16||-0.56||0.04||-0.09||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.12||-0.39||-0.26||-0.08||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.08||-0.08||-0.01||-0.08||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||0.06||-0.14||-0.03||0.10||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||0.18||-0.29||0.09||-0.17||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||0.00||-0.04||-0.01||0.06||-0.02||0.04||0.02|