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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller July 25, 2016
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that its industrial activity in the state was little-changed during July, ending sharp declines since early last year. Its General Business Activity index rose to -1.3 this month from -18.3 in June, but it was at the highest level since December 2014. The level of unfilled orders surged to the highest level since November. The production series improved following two months of negative readings, and the growth rate of new orders rose to the highest level in two months. Employment also improved to its best reading in six months and the average workweek lengthened. Growth in wages & benefits, however, deteriorated sharply. Current pricing power improved versus Q4'15, but it remained restrained.
The outlook brightened significantly. The general business activity and company outlook readings, six months ahead, both surged to the highest levels in 12 months. Expected new orders and production both surged. Expected shipments and unfilled orders also gained. Hiring was expected to improve significantly along with the length of the factory workweek. Wages & benefits, however, were expected to weaken, reversing improvement since January.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance)||Jul||Jun||May||Jul'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Current General Business Activity Index||-1.3||-18.3||-20.8||-4.9||-12.5||8.3||2.2|
|Growth Rate of Orders||-11.7||-17.4||-17.5||-15.4||-11.8||4.7||0.1|
|Number of Employees||-9.7||-18.6||-14.7||-3.9||-0.4||11.5||5.6|
|Prices Received for Finished Goods||-5.7||-5.2||-3.3||-2.3||-8.5||8.3||2.9|
|General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months||18.4||2.6||-1.8||19.3||4.1||17.4||11.0|
|Growth Rate of New Orders||34.7||20.3||10.2||29.7||20.7||31.5||25.0|
|Wages & Benefits||30.0||31.6||31.4||31.5||33.2||43.1||38.2|