- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
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- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller July 26, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index of 97.3 during July stayed close to 97.4 in June, revised from 98.0. The latest figure remained nearly the highest level since October and beat expectations for a decline to 96.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
By age group, confidence amongst respondents under age 35 reversed some of it June improvement, but remained up 25.2% versus 12 months earlier. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years rose to the highest level since October. Confidence amongst respondents over age 55 improved to the highest level in three months.
The present situations reading of confidence overall increased 1.5% (13.7% y/y) to 118.3, the highest level since September. The expectations figure eased 1.5% (+1.2% y/y) to 83.3, down from the January 2015 high of 97.0.
Details show that the present situation improvement reflected a jump in the perception that business conditions were good and stability in the view that jobs were plentiful. Jobs were seen as hard to get by a diminished 22.3% of respondents, the least since last August. The expectations figure declined due a drop in the perception that business conditions and income would improve. Expectations that there would be more jobs, however, held steady at the highest point in nine months.
Expectations for the inflation rate declined m/m to 4.7%, the lowest level since February. Higher interest rates were expected by 51.7% of respondents, remaining down sharply versus 72.6% in January.
Plans to buy a new home rose sharply to the highest level this year. Major appliance buying plans, however, remained stable. Intentions to buy a new car dropped sharply and reversed more than a year's improvement.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Jul||Jun||May||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||97.3||97.4||92.4||6.9||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||122.8||132.3||110.3||25.2||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||105.6||104.7||98.5||6.8||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||78.6||73.9||77.5||-4.4||84.0||73.8||61.2|