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- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
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NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
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by Tom Moeller July 27, 2016
New orders for durable goods fell 4.0% during June (-6.4% y/y) following a 2.8% May decline, revised from -2.2%. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
For a second straight month, weakness in the transportation sector led total orders lower. A 10.5% decline (-11.6% y/y) followed a 7.1% drop. Orders for civilian aircraft & parts plunged 58.8%, off by more than one half y/y, following a 5.5% decline. Defense aircraft orders were off 7.4% (-28.9% y/y) following a 9.0% drop. Working the other way, motor vehicle & parts orders improved 2.6% (2.5% y/y) after a 3.1% decline.
Outside of the transportation sector altogether, orders for durable goods eased 0.5% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Primary metal orders declined 1.3% (-10.5% y/y), the same as they did in May. Fabricated metal orders eased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y). Machinery bookings slipped 0.1% (-7.2% y/y), but electrical equipment orders improved 0.8% (-5.7% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products declined 2.2% (+0.3% y/y) as computer & related products orders fell 9.1% (-28.0% y/y). Orders for communications equipment were off 2.3% (-2.9% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 11.3% (-15.7% y/y) following a 1.6% decline. Excluding aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders improved 0.2% (-3.7% y/y following two consecutive monthly declines.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.4% (-2.0% y/y), but excluding transportation they were off 0.2% (-3.2 % y/y) for second straight month. Unfilled durable goods orders declined 0.9% (-1.9% y/y) and excluding transportation they eased 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following two months of stability. Inventories of durable goods declined 0.2% (-3.5% y/y), while outside of the transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (-4.1% y/y), the first rise in a year.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Durable Goods NAICS Classification||Jun||May||Apr||Jun Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|New Orders (SA, %)||-4.0||-2.8||3.2||-6.4||-2.9||4.8||2.8|
|Total Excluding Transportation||-0.5||-0.4||0.3||-3.6||-2.3||3.8||-0.1|
|Nondefense Capital Goods||-11.3||-1.6||8.3||-15.7||-9.6||1.2||4.2|