- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller July 29, 2016
Economic growth of 1.2% (SAAR, 1.2% y/y) during the second quarter followed a 0.8% Q1 gain, revised from 1.1%. GDP's increase disappointed expectations for a 2.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Inventory decumulation subtracted 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth. It was the largest of five consecutive quarterly subtractions. Growth during 2015 was revised to 2.6% from 2.4% estimated earlier. The GDP price index increased 2.2% (1.2% y/y), the quickest increase in a year. A 1.9% rise had been expected.
Accompanying the slowdown in overall output growth, domestic final demand improved. A 2.1% rise (2.0% y/y) in domestic final sales was the quickest increase in three quarters. Consumer spending growth led the improvement with a 4.2% rise (2.7% y/y), the quickest gain since Q4'14. It was led by an 8.4% rise (4.4% y/y) in durable goods purchases. Recreational goods & vehicle buying jumped 14.3% (9.3% y/y), the quickest rise since Q1'12. Spending on home furnishings & appliances rose 8.3% (6.8% y/y) and motor vehicles buying gained 4.5% (-0.8% y/y). In the nondurable goods area spending rose 6.0% (3.1% y/y), powered by an 8.6% gain (2.7% y/y) in food & beverage spending. Apparel buying rose 4.1% (1.5% y/y), but gasoline & fuel oil purchases fell 1.2% (+2.4% y/y). Spending on services strengthened 3.0% (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since Q4'14. It reflected a strengthened 4.2% rise (1.2% y/y) in housing & utilities and a 3.8% increase (4.2% y/y) in medical care. Recreation spending declined, however, at a 4.5% rate (+1.3% y/y).
Outside of personal spending, final demand declined. Business fixed investment fell at a 2.2% rate (-1.3% y/y), the third consecutive quarterly shortfall. Structures spending fell 7.9% (-7.0% y/y) and equipment purchases were off 3.5% (-1.9% y/y). Computer purchases declined 5.9% (+3.8% y/y) but industrial equipment buying gained 12.0% (3.1% y/y). Purchases of intellectual property products rose 3.5% (3.5% y/y).
Residential investment declined at a 6.1% annual rate (+6.2% y/y), the first decline since Q1'14.
Spending by governments eased 0.9% (+0.9% y/y) as state & local government purchases fell 1.3% (+1.0% y/y). Federal government spending eased 0.2% (+0.7% y/y), but defense spending declined 3.0% (-0.8% y/y).
Foreign trade added 0.2 percentage points to overall economic growth. The addition was due to a 1.4% rise in exports (-1.2% y/y) following three straight quarters of decline. Goods exports rose 2.7% (-1.3% y/y) while services exports eased 0.9% -1.1% y/y). Imports slipped 0.4% (+0.2% y/y), off for the second straight quarter. Goods imports fell 0.9% (-0.4% y/y), but services imports gained 1.5% (2.9% y/y).
The GDP price index increased 2.2% (1.2% y/y) as the residential investment price index jumped 5.2% (3.1% y/y). Higher energy prices raised the PCE price index 1.9% (0.9% y/y). Excluding food & energy, the PCE price index increased 1.7% (1.6% y/y). The business fixed investment price index gained 1.1% (0.5% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q2'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q1'16||Q4'15||Q2'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.2||0.8||0.9||1.2||2.6||2.4||1.7|
|Foreign Trade Effect||0.2||0.0||-0.5||-0.1||-0.7||-0.1||0.3|
|Domestic Final Sales||2.1||1.2||1.7||2.0||3.1||2.6||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||4.2||1.6||2.3||2.7||3.2||2.9||1.5|
|Business Fixed Investment||-2.2||-3.4||-3.3||-1.3||2.1||6.0||3.5|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.9||0.3||0.4||0.9||0.3||1.5||1.3|