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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Continue Steady Improvement
by Tom Moeller  August 3, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 179,000 (1.9% y/y) during July following a 176,000 June gain, revised from 172,000. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 184,000 per month, down from 207,000 averaged during 2015, and 234,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 170,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 61,000 (1.9% y/y) after an 86,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 124,000 averaged in Q2'14. A 68,000 increase (1.7% y/y) in hiring by medium-sized businesses was improved from the 56,000 June increase, but was less than the 105,000 averaged in Q4'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 50,000 increase (2.3% y/y) in jobs, the strongest since February.

Service-producing payrolls increased 185,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 203,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 59,000 (2.9% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities growth improved to 27,000 (1.4% y/y). Financial activity payrolls increased 11,000 (1.9% y/y).

Goods-producing jobs fell 6,000 (+0.2% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months, though it was lessened versus June's 28,000 fall. The construction industry shed 6,000 jobs (+2.8% y/y) after a 4,000 decline. Peak monthly hiring growth of 33,000 construction workers occurred in Q4'14. Hiring in the factory sector improved 4,000 (-0.2% y/y), the first rise since January.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jul Jun May Jul Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 179 176 181 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 61 86 89 1.9 2.6 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 68 56 65 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 50 34 27 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.5
Goods-Producing -6 -28 -2 0.2 1.8 2.4 1.8
  Construction -6 -4 10 2.8 4.5 4.7 3.7
  Manufacturing 4 -15 -1 -0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8
Service-Producing 185 203 183 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.9
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