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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller August 10, 2016
So far in FY'16, the federal government's budget deficit totaled $513.7 billion, up 10.4% versus $465.5 billion in the first ten months of FY'15. That result was highlighted in today's U.S. Treasury Department report of a $112.8 billion budget deficit during July. A $129 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues have been little changed so far in FY'16 versus the first ten months of FY'15. The total was pulled lower by a 12.8% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes eased 0.4% y/y following last year's 10.5% rise. Social insurance contributions increased 4.3% y/y while excise taxes fell 2.9% y/y.
Government spending increased 1.7% y/y so far in FY'16 compared to 5.2% growth last year. Outlays on health programs gained 5.4% y/y and Social Security benefits rose 3.3% y/y. Veterans payments rose 0.4% y/y. To the downside, income security program payments fell 2.4% y/y with lower unemployment. National Defense spending fell 1.9% y/y, continuing the declines of the last several years. Medicare spending declined 1.3% y/y as July payments last year were elevated. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services eased 0.6% y/y. Interest payments increased 10.6% so far this fiscal year versus 2015.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
|United States Government Finance||July 2016||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||-$112.815 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||2.6% ytd||2.5%||2.8%||4.1%||6.8%|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||0.2%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||-0.4||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-12.8||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||4.3||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||1.7||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||0.4||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-10.4||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|