Recent Updates

  • Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - Japan (Flash-Jun)
  • Japan: Wage Indexes (Apr)
  • US: Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey (Q2)
  • US: FHFA HPI (Apr)
  • Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • US: Composite Indexes (May)
  • Canada: Employment Insurance, Retail Trade (Apr)
  • Ireland: Producer & Wholesale Price Indexes (May)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Retail Sales Remain Unchanged; Non-Auto Sales Decline
by Tom Moeller  August 12, 2016

Total retail sales & spending at restaurants were virtually unchanged during July (2.3% y/y) following a 0.8% June rise, revised from 0.6%. Consensus expectations had been for 0.4% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Auto sales supported total spending with a 1.1% rise (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. The gain compared to a 6.8% jump in unit vehicle sales. Overall retail sales excluding autos declined 0.3% (+2.2% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase. A 0.2% gain had been expected.

Lower gasoline prices held back the rise in total sales as gasoline service station sales fell 2.7% (-11.0% y/y), and reversed a 2.2% rise. A 0.5% decline (+3.5% y/y) in purchases of building materials & garden equipment also damped total spending. Excluding these categories, and autos as well, retail sales eased slightly (+3.3% y/y).

Retail sales also eased minimally last month (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.9% gain. Sales excluding autos declined 0.4% (+1.7% y/y) after 1.0% rise. Nonstore retail outlets posted a 1.3% surge (14.1% y/y) in sales, the same as in June. Furniture & home furnishings store sales gained 0.2% (4.3% y/y) following a 1.5% jump. Electronics & appliance store sales eased, however, by 0.1% (-3.8% y/y). Apparel store sales declined 0.5% (-1.2% y/y) after little change, and general merchandise store sales eased 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) following 0.2% rise. Sporting goods store sales declined 2.2% (+2.1% y/y) and reversed a 1.7% increase. Restaurant & drinking establishment sales fell 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.

In the non-discretionary spending category, health & personal care sore sales gained 0.1% (7.8% y/y) following a 0.9% jump. Food & beverage store sales declined 0.6% (+1.4 y/y).

The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

Retail Spending (%) Jul Jun May Jul Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Total Retail Sales & Food Services -0.0 0.8 0.2 2.3 2.3 4.1 3.8
  Excluding Autos -0.3 0.9 0.3 2.2 1.2 3.6 2.7
  Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group) -0.0 0.5 0.4 3.3 3.3 4.0 2.9
Retail Sales -0.0 0.9 0.1 1.9 1.6 3.9 3.8
  Motor Vehicle & Parts 1.1 0.5 -0.3 2.4 6.5 6.4 8.3
 Retail Less Autos -0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.2 3.2 2.6
  Gasoline Stations -2.7 2.2 1.7 -11.0 -19.4 -2.4 -1.2
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales -0.2 0.3 0.5 5.0 8.0 6.1 3.7
close
large image