- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller August 15, 2016
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo improved to 60 during August from 58 in July, revised from 59. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years there has been an 72% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present conditions in the housing market rose to 65 from 63 while the index for the next six months increased to 67 from 66. Both readings remained down versus their Q4'15 peaks.
Home builders reported that the traffic index eased to 44 from 45, and also remained below the Q4'15 high.
Movement in the regional indexes was mixed. The index for the Northeast jumped m/m to the highest level since March. The South's figure recovered its July decline. To the downside, the Midwest index declined to the lowest level since May of last year. The index for the West eased moderately.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
|National Association of Home Builders||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)||60||58||60||61||59||52||51|
|Single-Family Sales: Present||65||63||64||66||64||56||55|
|Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months||67||66||69||70||66||61||58|
|Traffic of Prospective Buyers||44||45||46||45||43||39||39|