- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
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- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller August 18, 2016
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index improved in August to 2.0 from an unrevised -2.9 in July. This latest positive reading compares with negative figures throughout most of the year, and was higher than December's low of -10.2. The reading compared to expectations for 1.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index, constructed by Haver Analytics declined to 45.4 this month from 49.9 in July, and both readings continued to indicate declining activity. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
The rise in the Philadelphia Fed index contrasts to the decline in the Empire State reading, released Monday. The shipments component and the prices paid series improved, while new & unfilled orders, delivery times and inventories deteriorated.
The employment component dropped sharply to the lowest level of the economic expansion. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls.
The future business activity index improved sharply for the second straight month. Higher shipments, new orders and capital expenditures prompted the rise.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
|Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA)||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Factory Sector Business Conditions||2.0||-2.9||4.7||3.4||3.6||18.3||6.1|
|ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions||45.4||49.9||46.0||51.2||49.4||53.7||50.0|
|Number of Employees||-20.0||-1.6||-10.9||5.3||3.9||10.5||1.4|