- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller August 18, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% during July (1.2% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% June gain. It was the third rise in the last four months. Expectations had been for a 0.3% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month change in the index eased slightly to 2.3% (AR), and was below its peak growth of 7.1% roughly one year ago.
Virtually all of the component series contributed positively to the total, including higher stock prices, a steeper interest rate yield curve, longer average weekly production sector hours-worked, lower initial claims for unemployment insurance and the leading credit index. Lower consumer expectations for business/economic conditions had a negative influence and building permits were neutral.
The coincident index increased 0.4% (1.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest rise since December 2014. Three-month growth of 1.8% (AR) was the strongest since February. Each of the component series, including nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively to the index.
The lagging index improved 0.1% (3.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% fall. Three-month growth weakened further to 1.7% versus a 4.7% high two months ago. A higher consumer credit-to-income ratio and a higher inventory-to-sales ratio had the largest positive effects on the total index last month. Offsetting these gains were a longer duration of unemployment, fewer commercial & industrial loan outstanding, and lessened 6-month growth in the services CPI.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio rose to the highest level in three months.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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