- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller August 22, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago increased to 0.27 during July from 0.05 in June, revised from 0.16. It was the strongest reading in twelve months. The three-month moving average improved to -0.10, its best reading since February. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Improvement in the component series was widespread. The Production & Income reading rose sharply to 0.23, its highest point since last July. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure increased to 0.09, the strongest reading in six months. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure was positive for the first time since September. Holding steady was the Personal Consumption & Housing reading. The Fed reported that 53 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 32 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Remarks on the U.S. Economy from Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve can be found here.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Jul||Jun||May||Jul '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||0.27||0.05||-0.63||0.34||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.10||-0.19||-0.43||-0.02||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.06||-0.06||-0.10||-0.06||-0.09||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||0.09||0.05||-0.13||0.20||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||0.23||0.07||-0.22||0.26||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||0.01||-0.01||-0.17||-0.05||-0.02||0.04||0.02|