- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller August 26, 2016
Economic growth during Q2'16 was revised lower to 1.1% (SAAR, 1.2% y/y) from the initial estimate of a 1.2% gain. The revision was accompanied by the first report of corporate earnings, which showed a 4.9% rise (-2.2% y/y), the second consecutive quarter of firm increase. The GDP revision was as expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey.
Despite the downward revision to overall economic growth, the increase in consumer spending was revised higher to 4.4% (2.7% y/y). It was the strongest increase since Q4'14. Durable goods purchases advanced at a 9.9% rate (4.8% y/y), fueled by a 15.2% strengthening (9.6% y/y) of recreational goods & vehicles purchases. Home furnishings & appliance buying rose 10.2% (7.3% y/y) while motor vehicle purchases grew 8.0% (-0.0% y/y). Nondurable goods spending gained 5.7% (3.0% y/y) as food & beverage purchases rose 7.5% (2.4% y/y), and apparel spending gained 4.9% (1.7% y/y). Gasoline spending eased 0.7% (+2.5% y/y). In the services sector, spending increased 3.1% (2.3% y/y) as housing & utilities outlays rose 4.2% (1.2% y/y). Health care outlays firmed 3.9% (4.2% y/y) but recreation outlays declined 3.5% (1.5% y/y).
Business fixed investment eased at a lessened 0.9% rate (-1.0% y/y), the least of three sequential quarterly declines. Structures outlays declined 8.4% (-7.1% y/y); they've been falling since Q4'14. Equipment outlays declined 3.7% (-1.9% y/y) as information processing equipment fell 4.8% (+4.2% y/y), but industrial equipment outlays grew 9.1% (2.4% y/y). Spending on transportation equipment declined 7.8% (-3.3% y/y). Intellectual property product spending gained 8.6% (4.7% y/y) due to a 14.4% strengthening (11.8% y/y) of software outlays. Research & development investment rose 17.1% (7.1% y/y).
Residential investment fell at a 7.7% rate (+5.7% y/y), the first decline since Q1'14.
Government purchases declined at a 1.5% annual rate (+0.7% y/y) as state & local buying fell 2.2% (+0.8% y/y). Federal government purchases eased 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) as defense spending dropped 3.1% (-0.8% y/y), about the same as in Q1.
Inventory investment subtracted a slightly increased 1.3 percentage points from economic growth. It was the largest of five consecutive quarterly reductions. The foreign trade sector added a slightly lessened 0.1 percentage point to overall economic growth. Exports grew 1.2% (-1.3% y/y) while imports improved 0.3% (0.4% y/y).
After tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA increased 4.9%, but still declined 2.2% y/y. Profits before tax with IVA & CCA declined 1.2% (-4.9% y/y). Domestic nonfinancial industry profits declined 7.7% y/y while domestic financial industry profits dropped 20.0% y/y. Profits earned abroad improved 3.6% y/y.
The GDP price index increased at a 2.3% rate (1.2% y/y), which was revised up minimally. The personal consumption price index increased 2.0% (1.0% y/y), and excluding food & beverages, it rose 1.8% (1.6% y/y). The nonresidential investment price index increased 1.2% (0.5% y/y), while the residential investment price index jumped 5.8% (3.2% y/y). The government sector price index increased 2.7% (0.7% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future is the title of today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen, and it can be found here.
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q2'16 (2nd Estimate)||Q2'16 (Advance Estimate)||Q1'16||Q4'15||Q2'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||1.1||1.2||0.8||0.9||1.2||2.6||2.4||1.7|
|Foreign Trade Effect||0.1||0.2||0.0||-0.5||-0.1||-0.7||-0.1||0.3|
|Domestic Final Sales||2.2||2.1||1.2||1.7||2.0||3.1||2.6||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||4.4||4.2||1.6||2.3||2.7||3.2||2.9||1.5|
|Business Fixed Investment||-0.9||-2.2||-3.4||-3.3||-1.0||2.1||6.0||3.5|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.0||1.9||0.3||0.4||1.0||0.3||1.5||1.3|