- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller August 30, 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.6% to 101.1 (-0.2% y/y) during August from 96.7 in July, revised from 97.3. The latest figure was at the highest level since September and surpassed expectations for 97.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The present situations reading of confidence rose 3.5% (6.2% y/y) to 123.0, the highest level since August 2007. The expectations reading increased 5.4% to 86.4 (-5.7% y/y), the highest level since October.
By age group, confidence amongst those aged 35-54 years rose 7.5% (2.5% y/y) to the highest level since September. Confidence amongst respondents over age 55 improved 4.7% (-2.4% y/y) to the highest level in twelve months. Amongst those aged under 35, confidence rose 0.7% (2.5% y/y), but remained below the June high.
Details show that the present situation improvement reflected a jump in the perception that business conditions were good, bringing it to the highest level since March 2001. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by the greatest percentage of respondents since 2007, and jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.4% of respondents, near the recovery low. Expectations for business conditions in six months improved to the most favorable reading since October. Perceptions about employment opportunities also rose to the highest level since October, but the perception of income improvement was even stronger.
Higher price inflation in six months was expected by a low 4.8% of respondents. Higher interest rates in twelve months were expected by 54.3% of respondents, down from 72.6% in January.
A raised 1.4% of respondents expected to buy a new home in the next six months, the most since December. A slightly higher 50.3% intended to buy a major appliance, but 3.7% planned to buy a new car, down from 5.4% just two months ago.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
Projecting the Long-Run Natural Rate of Interest from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Aug||Jul||Jun||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||101.1||96.7||97.4||-0.2||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||120.9||120.1||132.3||2.5||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||112.7||104.8||104.7||2.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||84.7||80.9||73.9||-2.4||84.1||73.8||61.2|