- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
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The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
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U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
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Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Carol Stone, CBE September 6, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) decreased to 51.4 in August from 55.5 in July. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a much more modest slowing to 55.5. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure that was released September 1st. This Composite declined from 55.2 to 51.2, which is the lowest reading since January 2010. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Several of the nonmanufacturing components slowed noticeably. The business activity index retreated to 51.8 in August from 59.3 in July. New orders similarly declined, down to 51.4 in August after 60.3 in July. And employment eased to 50.7 from 51.4. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. In contrast, the supplier deliveries index firmed slightly, moving from 51.0 in July to 51.5 in August.
The prices paid series was little changed at 51.8 last month versus 51.9 in July. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 9 percent paid lower prices.
The export order series dropped markedly to 46.5 from 55.5. The imports series was 50.5, down from 53.0. The order backlog measure retreated from 51.0 to 49.5, as 12% of respondents had larger backlogs, but 13% saw backlogs shrink. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||51.4||55.5||56.5||58.3||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||51.5||51.0||54.0||52.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|