- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Carol Stone, CBE September 6, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) decreased to 51.4 in August from 55.5 in July. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a much more modest slowing to 55.5. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure that was released September 1st. This Composite declined from 55.2 to 51.2, which is the lowest reading since January 2010. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Several of the nonmanufacturing components slowed noticeably. The business activity index retreated to 51.8 in August from 59.3 in July. New orders similarly declined, down to 51.4 in August after 60.3 in July. And employment eased to 50.7 from 51.4. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. In contrast, the supplier deliveries index firmed slightly, moving from 51.0 in July to 51.5 in August.
The prices paid series was little changed at 51.8 last month versus 51.9 in July. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 9 percent paid lower prices.
The export order series dropped markedly to 46.5 from 55.5. The imports series was 50.5, down from 53.0. The order backlog measure retreated from 51.0 to 49.5, as 12% of respondents had larger backlogs, but 13% saw backlogs shrink. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||51.4||55.5||56.5||58.3||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||51.5||51.0||54.0||52.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|