- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a Federal budget deficit of $107.1 billion during August. That compared to a $64.4 billion deficit in August of last year. A $100 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far in FY'16, the federal government's budget deficit totaled $620.8 billion, up 17.1% versus $530.0 billion in the first eleven months of FY'15.
Overall revenues improved 0.9% y/y so far in FY'16 versus the first eleven months of FY'15. The total was pulled lower by a 13.2% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in 2015. Individual income taxes rose 0.5% y/y following last year's 10.5% rise. Social insurance contributions increased 4.5% y/y while excise taxes fell 3.0% y/y.
Government spending increased 3.4% y/y so far in FY'16 compared to 5.2% growth last year. Outlays on health programs gained 4.9% y/y and Medicare payments also rose 4.9% y/y. Social Security benefits increased 3.2% y/y and Veterans payments grew 5.2% y/y. To the downside, income security program payments eased 0.4% y/y with lower unemployment. National Defense spending fell 0.2% y/y, continuing the declines of the last several years. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services declined 8.4% y/y. Interest payments increased 9.8% so far this fiscal year versus 2015.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
|United States Government Finance||August 2016||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||-$107.1 bil.||-$438.9 bil.||-$483.4 bil.||-$680.2 bil.||-$1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||3.4% ytd||2.5%||2.8%||4.1%||6.8%|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||0.9%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||0.5||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||11||-13.2||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||33||4.5||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change)||100||3.4||5.2||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||5.2||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-8.4||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|