- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2016
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions remained below zero during September. The index level of -1.99 was slightly improved, however, versus -4.21 in August. Expectations had been for -1.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The data are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 45.0, the lowest level since January. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the change in real GDP.
The employment series deteriorated sharply versus August to the weakest reading since December. During the last ten years, there has been a 68% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The workweek component also fell sharply to its lowest level since December, and inventories deteriorated sharply. Further declines into negative territory were posted by most other component series.
The prices paid index improved slightly to 16.96, and remained up from its October low of 0.94. Nineteen percent of respondents paid higher prices while two percent paid less. The index of prices received remained slightly positive.
The index of expectations for business conditions in six months rebounded to the highest level since June. New orders, employment and prices paid led the advance. Capital spending plans improved along with intended technology spending.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series dates back to 2001. The Action Economics figure can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep'15||2015||2014||2013|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA)||-1.99||-4.21||0.55||-12.86||-2.34||11.89||3.88|
|General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA)||45.0||50.1||48.9||44.8||48.9||52.4||50.0|
|Number of Employees||-14.29||-1.03||-4.40||-6.19||2.72||10.85||3.73|
|Expectations 6 Months Ahead||34.53||23.74||29.24||23.53||30.38||40.22||33.25|