- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Carol Stone, CBE September 19, 2016
Total borrowing in the U.S. was $2,443 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q2, down from $2,966 billion in Q1, according to the Financial Accounts of the U.S., released Friday by the Federal Reserve Board. The Q2 amount represented 13.3% of GDP, compared to 16.2% in Q1 and similar to the general 10-13% range that has prevailed since 2012. Notably, in the five years before the Great Recession, this ratio averaged almost 29% and peaked at 36.4% in 2007-Q3.
In Q2, the federal government borrowed $722 billion SAAR, down from Q1's $852 billion. Issuance of marketable Treasury securities was $629 billion in Q2 versus $719 billion the quarter before. Nonmarketable borrowing was $141 billion after $134 billion in Q1. Thus, the outsized debt-crisis volume of Q4-2015, $2,243 billion, is clearly seen as a special case.
Households borrowed $622 billion SAAR in Q2, up from $372 billion in Q1. Net new home mortgages came to $241 billion, compared to $192 billion in Q1. The Q2 amount was the largest since Q1-2008, but still substantially smaller than during the housing boom just ahead of the recession. Consumer credit expanded $230 billion in Q2, slightly larger than the $199 billion in Q1. Credit card debt rose $69 billion, up from $49 billion, and student loans rose $86 billion, down from $96 billion. Over the last five years, student loan borrowing has averaged right at $91 billion each quarter. Borrowing by non-profits, hedge funds and others assigned to the "household" sector was $151 billion SAAR in Q2, versus a net paydown of $11 billion in Q1. Household borrowing was 4.5% of disposable personal income in Q2, up from 2.8% in Q1 and similar to the last three years; in sharp contrast, from 2003 through 2006, this ratio was just over 12%.
Nonfinancial corporate business borrowing diminished markedly in Q2 to $244 billion SAAR from $902 billion in Q1. Corporate bond issuance was $293 billion SAAR, down from Q1's $530 billion. Depository institution loans increased only $27 billion in Q2 after $156 billion in Q1, while loans from other lenders were paid down at a $165 billion annual rate, after increasing $138 billion in Q1. Commercial paper issuance was $12 billion in Q2, following $34 billion in Q1.
The financial sector borrowing appeared to firm up, with $571 billion in Q2, after $586 in Q1, the two strongest quarters since mid-2008. These latest periods were, however, far less than in the run-up to the recession and the financial crisis that characterized that period.
Press reports of these Financial Accounts highlight household balance sheets and net worth, and describe that amount at end-Q2 as a "record." Indeed, household net worth did rise in Q2 from a record amount in Q1, but the increase was marginal, to $89.1 trillion (level, not seasonally adjusted) from $88.0 trillion at the end of Q1. Homeowners' equity was $12.7 trillion, up from $12.4 trillion. Holdings of corporate equities at end-Q2 were $14.5 trillion, up from $14.2 trillion, and mutual fund holds were $6.7 trillion, slightly more than Q1's $6.5 trillion.
Net wealth of the total economy moved ahead $1.2 trillion in Q2 to $81.1 trillion from $79.9 trillion at end-Q1 (also levels, not seasonally adjusted). The total market value of domestic corporations rose to $29.4 trillion from $28.8 trillion; it had fallen during Q1 from $28.9 trillion at end-2015. Net financial claims on the "rest of the world" decreased from $-5.7 trillion at end-Q1 to -$5.8 trillion in Q2. The remainder of the net wealth measure consists of nonfinancial assets held by households, noncorporate business and governments; these totaled $57.5 trillion at end-Q2, up $810 billion from end-Q1.
The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's FFUNDS database. Associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); these are carried in Haver's USNA database.
|Financial Accounts (SAAR, Bil.$)||Q2'16||Q1'16||Q4'15||2015||2014||2013||2012|
|Nonfinancial Corporate Business||244||902||268||472||485||397||305|