- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller September 22, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago declined to -0.55 during August from 0.24 in July, revised from 0.27. It was the weakest reading in three months. The three-month moving average was little changed at -0.07. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Weaker readings in the component series were widespread. The Production & Income reading fell sharply to -0.33, its lowest level since March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure declined to -0.09, the weakest level in three months. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure eased to -0.05, in negative territory where it's been for most of the past year. The Personal Consumption & Housing reading fell to -0.08, also the weakest figure in three months. The Fed reported that 19 of the component series made positive contributions to the total while 66 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||-0.55||0.24||0.09||-0.33||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.07||-0.09||-0.16||-0.01||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.08||-0.06||-0.04||-0.09||-0.08||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.09||0.15||0.02||-0.10||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||-0.33||0.15||0.12||-0.06||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||-0.05||0.00||-0.01||-0.08||-0.02||0.04||0.02|