- US: Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Brazil: PPI (Mar); Mexico: Compensation and Productivity (Feb)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Advanced HICP & CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Apr)
- Belgium: CPI (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey, State CPI: Bavaria, Saxony, Berlin, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg (Apr)
- Building Permits (Feb)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Little-Changed; Crude Oil Falls
Regular gasoline prices of $2.45 per gallon last week (13.3% y/y)...
Japan's METI Indexes Show Ongoing Gains
The services sector is assessed by the METI indexes where it is named the 'tertiary sector.' That sector index rose to 104.1 in February...
U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes increased 5.8% (15.6% y/y) during March to 621,000...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Backpedals
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.7% during April (+27.0% y/y) to 120.3...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Regains Strength
The FHFA U.S. house prices increased 0.8% during February (6.5% y/y)...
French Manufacturing and Service Sectors Weaken But Stay on Trend or Hold Recent Gains
The French manufacturing sector trend index is down to 1 in April from 3 in March...
by Tom Moeller September 22, 2016
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago declined to -0.55 during August from 0.24 in July, revised from 0.27. It was the weakest reading in three months. The three-month moving average was little changed at -0.07. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Weaker readings in the component series were widespread. The Production & Income reading fell sharply to -0.33, its lowest level since March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure declined to -0.09, the weakest level in three months. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure eased to -0.05, in negative territory where it's been for most of the past year. The Personal Consumption & Housing reading fell to -0.08, also the weakest figure in three months. The Fed reported that 19 of the component series made positive contributions to the total while 66 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
|Chicago Federal Reserve Bank||Aug||Jul||Jun||Aug '15||2015||2014||2013|
|National Activity Index (percent)||-0.55||0.24||0.09||-0.33||-0.17||0.16||-0.08|
|3-Month Moving Average||-0.07||-0.09||-0.16||-0.01||--||--||--|
|Personal Consumption & Housing||-0.08||-0.06||-0.04||-0.09||-0.08||-0.11||-0.15|
|Employment, Unemployment & Hours||-0.09||0.15||0.02||-0.10||0.07||0.18||0.09|
|Production & Income||-0.33||0.15||0.12||-0.06||-0.14||0.06||-0.04|
|Sales, Orders & Inventories||-0.05||0.00||-0.01||-0.08||-0.02||0.04||0.02|