- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2016
The Conference Board reported that's its Consumer Confidence index increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to 104.1 during September following a 5.3% jump in August. It was the highest level since August 2007. A 1.9% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old declined 6.2% (-7.6% y/y) to the lowest level since May. This was offset by a 10.1% rise (13.7% y/y) in confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 fell slightly (-0.5% y/y).
The index of confidence about the present situation improved 2.6% (6.8% y/y) following a 5.5% increase, while the future confidence index gained 2.0% (-3.3% y/y) after a 5.0% rise.
A reduced 27.4% of respondents felt that business conditions were good. That reversed the prior month's gain. An increased 27.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful, the most of the economic expansion. A reduced 21.6% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated slightly, but the percentage who thought that there would be more jobs rose to the highest level (15.1%) in more than a year. Expectations for the inflation rate rose to 5.0%, the highest point since November, while an increased 60.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home plummeted to the lowest percentage (0.6%) since April of last year. Total plans to buy a major appliance eased to 49.2%, and it's been moving sideways for two years.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||104.1||101.8||96.7||1.5||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||114.9||122.5||120.1||-7.6||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||112.6||113.0||104.8||-0.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||93.0||84.5||80.9||13.7||84.1||73.8||61.2|