- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2016
The Conference Board reported that's its Consumer Confidence index increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to 104.1 during September following a 5.3% jump in August. It was the highest level since August 2007. A 1.9% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old declined 6.2% (-7.6% y/y) to the lowest level since May. This was offset by a 10.1% rise (13.7% y/y) in confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 fell slightly (-0.5% y/y).
The index of confidence about the present situation improved 2.6% (6.8% y/y) following a 5.5% increase, while the future confidence index gained 2.0% (-3.3% y/y) after a 5.0% rise.
A reduced 27.4% of respondents felt that business conditions were good. That reversed the prior month's gain. An increased 27.9% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful, the most of the economic expansion. A reduced 21.6% thought jobs were hard to get, the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated slightly, but the percentage who thought that there would be more jobs rose to the highest level (15.1%) in more than a year. Expectations for the inflation rate rose to 5.0%, the highest point since November, while an increased 60.2% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home plummeted to the lowest percentage (0.6%) since April of last year. Total plans to buy a major appliance eased to 49.2%, and it's been moving sideways for two years.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||104.1||101.8||96.7||1.5||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||114.9||122.5||120.1||-7.6||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||112.6||113.0||104.8||-0.5||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||93.0||84.5||80.9||13.7||84.1||73.8||61.2|