- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller October 5, 2016
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 154,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private payrolls during September following a 175,000 August gain, revised from 177,000. It was the smallest rise since April. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 181,000 per month, down from 207,000 averaged during 2015, and 234,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 166,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 34,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 68,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 124,000 averaged in Q2'14. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 56,000 (1.6% y/y) compared to a 40,000 August increase, less than the 105,000 averaged in Q4'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 64,000 rise in jobs (2.5% y/y), up from the 24,000 rise in April.
Service-producing payrolls increased 151,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 184,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 45,000 (3.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities jobs improved 15,000 (1.4% y/y). Financial activity payrolls increased 11,000 (1.9% y/y).
Goods-producing jobs improved 3,000 (+0.1% y/y), the first increase in six months. The construction industry added 11,000 jobs (2.3% y/y), the first rise since May. Peak monthly hiring growth of 33,000 construction workers occurred in Q4'14. Hiring in the factory sector declined 6,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 4,000 shortfall.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ADP/Moody's National Employment Report||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s)||154||175||196||1.9%||2.3%||2.2%||1.9%|
|Small Payroll (1-49)||34||68||69||1.9||2.6||2.1||1.9|
|Medium Payroll (50-499)||56||40||71||1.6||2.3||2.8||2.2|
|Large Payroll (>500)||64||67||56||2.5||1.7||1.6||1.5|