- New Zealand: International Trade (Feb)
- Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Mar); Philippines: Public Finance (Jan)
- Weekly: **Initial Claims Data Revisions Completed**
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Mar)
- US: New Residential Sales (Feb)
- Belgium: Business Survey (Mar)
- Uruguay: GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall to Five-Month Low; Inventory Remains Tight
Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.7% (+5.4% y/y) to 5.480 million units (AR) during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
The FHFA U.S. house price index remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase ...
Japan's Trade Trends Turn Sharply Higher
Japan has logged its largest current account surplus since April 2010...
by Tom Moeller October 5, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) improved to 57.1 in September from an unrevised 51.4 in August. It was the highest level since October 2015. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for 52.9. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure that was released Monday. This Composite rose to 56.4, also its highest level since October. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Several of the nonmanufacturing components showed sharp improvement. The business activity index rose to 60.3, the highest level since October of last year. New orders similarly jumped to 60.0 from 51.4. Finally, employment neared the October high with a surge to 57.2. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. In contrast, the supplier deliveries index eased to 51.0, about where it's been for three months.
The prices paid series increased 54.0, its highest level in three months. Fifteen percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 12 percent paid less.
The export order series rebounded to 56.5 and made up its August decline. The imports series was little changed at 51.0. The order backlog measure increased sharply to 52.0. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted.
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||57.1||51.4||55.5||56.7||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||51.0||51.5||51.0||52.5||52.5||51.8||51.7|