- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Robert Brusca October 7, 2016
German IP rebounded to gain 2.5% month-to-month in August after a 1.5% drop in July. With this rebound, German GDP is up at an 8.8% annual rate over three months. However, it is only up at a 0.5% pace two months into the third quarter.
German IP has become more volatile than strong. The growth calculations are being affected not just by outsized gains or drops month-to-month but also affected by a base for the calculation that can itself be unstable and skew broader growth rate calculations. The quarter-to-date calculation is the most reliable since it calculates this month's level averaged with last month's level and properly accounts for the passage of time gauging the gain in IP from the Q2 level, a relatively broad and stable period. On that basis, IP is up by only 0.5% in the third quarter-to-date with consumer goods output up at a 0.8% pace, capital goods output falling at a 1.1% pace, and intermediate goods output falling at a 2.9% annualized rate - not an impressive performance.
Construction output is strong in Q3, rising at a 10.4% annual rate in the Q3-to-date period. German IP in manufacturing is also up strongly at a 14% annualized rate in the quarter to date. Real manufacturing orders are rising at a 6.7% annual rate in the quarter-to-date. On these data, the quarter looks more solid.
This month relatively more countries are early reporters of IP results, along with Germany. Spanish and French IP both are up strongly in August, Spain after a substantial drop in July and France after a minor stumble in July. U.K. IP also is higher. Still, in the quarter-to-date, French IP is up at only a 0.5% pace, Spanish IP is falling at a 5.6% pace, and U.K. IP is flat. Also reporting IP in August were the Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, and Norway. IP fell in all of these countries month-to-month. Only Portugal and the Dutch have back-to-back IP declines, however. In the quarter-to-date, IP is falling and falling sharply in all these countries except for Ireland whose IP gain in the quarter-to-data is up at a super-charged 13.4% annualized pace. But the Netherland shows IP dropping at a 2.6% pace, Portugal is contracting at a 5.2% pace, Sweden is shrinking at a fast 7% annual rate and Norway by a 6% pace.
The third quarter is not off to a very robust path two months into the data. Of course, we do have the manufacturing ISM in hand for September and we know that the manufacturing reading did pick up. That means some revival for this weakness before IP finalizes in Q3. Still, we have to say right now, so far no good.