- Japan: First Ten Days Trade (Mar), International Trade, Foreign Banks Foreign Banks in Japan (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure, International Reserves, RBNZ Analytical Accounts/Statistical Balance Sheet, Foreign Currency Assets, Liabilities, and Currency Flows (Feb); Australia: Flow of Funds (Q4), Job Vacancies (Q1)
- Korea: Building Permits (Feb); Philippines: LFS (Q3)
- US: IIP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2016
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during September (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the bounce-back, the three-month change in sales fell to 2.1% (AR), its weakest since March.
Sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 1.1% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. This compared to a 4.5% rise in unit vehicle purchases. Excluding autos, retail sales gained 0.5% (2.7% y/y) following two months of decline. In the retail control group, which comprises nonauto sales less gasoline, building materials & restaurants, sales nudged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) following two months of decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 2.4% (-3.4% y/y) after a 1.4% drop. Building materials & garden equipment buying gained 1.4% (5.6% y/y) following a 0.8% fall.
Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales improved 1.4% (0.0% y/y) after two months of roughly 2.5% decline. Furniture & home furnishings store sales jumped 1.0% (2.7% y/y), though that followed two months of decline as well. Nonstore retailer sales improved 0.3% (10.6% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Clothing store sales remained steady (0.7% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. To the downside, electronics & appliance outlet sales were off 0.9% (-3.8% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. General merchandisers posted a 0.4% drop (-2.5% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, food & beverage store sales improved 0.1% ( 1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.5% (+5.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Eating out was in vogue as food service & drinking establishment sales increased 0.8% (6.1% y/y) following a 0.7% gain.
U.S. Real Wage Growth: Fast Out of the Starting Blocks from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Retail Spending (%)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Total Retail Sales & Food Services||0.6||-0.2||0.1||2.7||2.3||4.1||3.8|
|Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group)||0.1||-0.1||-0.2||2.5||3.3||4.0||2.9|
|Motor Vehicle & Parts||1.1||-0.3||2.0||2.5||6.7||6.4||8.3|
|Retail Less Autos||0.5||-0.3||-0.4||2.1||0.2||3.2||2.6|
|Food Service & Drinking Places Sales||0.8||0.7||-0.1||6.1||8.1||6.1||3.7|