- US: GDP & Corporate Profits (Q4, 3rd release)
- Canada: Industrial Products & Raw Material Prices (Feb)
- Spain: Flash HICP and CPI, Construction Business Survey Press (Mar)
- Euro area: EC Business and Consumer Surveys (Mar)
- Belize: GDP (Q4)
- Chile: IP (Feb); Brazil: Retail Trade - Rebased 2014=100 (Jan)
- Croatia: Employment, Retail Trade Press (Feb), Earnings (Jan); Bulgaria: PPI (Feb); Montenegro: Wages (Feb); Latvia: Retail Trade (Jan); Lithuania: External Debt Service (Q4);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Initial jobless insurance applications fell to 258,000 (-3.1% y/y) during the week ended March 25...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump
The NAR reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Remain Little Changed; Variable Rate Apps Surge
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index slipped 0.8% last week (-12.4% y/y)...
La Dolce Vita? Italian Confidence Bumps Higher
Italian business and consumer confidence moved higher in March...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Significantly
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
by Tom Moeller October 17, 2016
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during fiscal year 2016 the federal government ran a budget deficit of $587.4 billion versus $438.9 billion in FY'15. It was the largest budget shortfall since FY'13, and brought the deficit to 3.2% of GDP, up from 2.5% last year. For the month of September alone, a surplus of $33.4 billion compared to $90.9 billion last year. A $29.3 billion September surplus was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues improved 0.6% versus FY'15. The total was pulled lower by a 12.9% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments, compared to 7.2% growth in FY'15. Individual income taxes rose 0.3% y/y following last year's 10.5% rise. Social insurance contributions increased 4.7% y/y while excise taxes fell 3.3% y/y.
Government spending increased 4.5% y/y in FY'16 compared to 5.3% growth in last year. Medicare outlays grew 8.8%, the most since 2009, and outlays on health programs gained a diminished 6.0% y/y. Social Security benefits rose a lessened 3.2% y/y while Veterans Payments grew 9.3% y/y, the most in three years. Income Security Program payments improved 1.0% y/y, the first rise since 2010. National Defense spending edged 0.7% higher, continuing the weakness of the last several years. Spending on Education, Training, Employment & Social Services declined 10.2% y/y while interest payments increased 7.8% in FY'16.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
|United States Government Finance||FY'16||FY'15||FY'14||FY'13||FY'12|
|Budget Balance||--||$-587.4 bil.||$-438.9 bil.||$-483.4 bil.||$-680.2 bil.||$-1,089.2 bil.|
|As a percent of GDP||--||3.2%||2.5%||2.8%||4.1%||6.8%|
|% of Total|
|Net Revenues (Fiscal Year 2016, Y/Y % Change)||100||0.6%||7.6%||8.9%||13.3%||6.4%|
|Individual Income Taxes||47||0.3||10.5||5.9||16.3||3.7|
|Corporate Income Taxes||9||-12.9||7.2||17.3||12.9||33.8|
|Social Insurance Taxes||34||4.7||4.1||8.0||12.1||3.2|
|Net Outlays (Fiscal year 2016, Y/Y % Change)||100||4.5||5.3||1.4||-2.4||-1.7|
|Veterans Benefits & Services||4||9.3||6.8||7.7||11.5||-2.0|
|Education, Training, Employment & Social Services||3||-10.2||34.7||25.9||-21.9||-10.3|