- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller October 20, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded 0.2% (1.5% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% decline. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The six-month change in the index improved to 2.3% (AR), but was below its peak growth of 7.1% roughly one year ago.
Contributing positively to the index last month were more building permits, fewer initial claims for jobless insurance, a steeper interest rate yield curve, more factory orders for consumer goods and better consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. These gains were offset by negative readings from a decline in stock prices, a shorter average workweek, a lower ISM new orders diffusion index, fewer capital goods orders, lower stock prices and the leading credit index.
The coincident index increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y) following no change, revised from 0.1%. Six-month growth rose to 1.8%, its best since October. Each of the component series contributed positively to the index, including nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The lagging index rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% gain. Three-month growth fell to 2.2% versus a 4.9% high early last year. The services CPI, the average duration of unemployment, the 6-month change in unit labor costs and the consumer installment credit/income ratio contributed positively to the index. The number of consumer & industrial loans outstanding contributed negatively for the fourth straight month.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio held steady m/m, and was up slightly from the May low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Bad Credit, No Problem? Credit and Labor Market Consequences of Bad Credit Reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Business Cycle Indicators (%)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|