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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
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Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2016
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for October declined 4.7% (-0.5% y/y) to 98.6, the first decline in three months. A 2.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The index of confidence about the present situation fell 5.7% (+5.2% y/y), the first decline in five months. The future confidence index was off 3.8% (-5.4% y/y), down for the first time in three months.
A sharply reduced 26.2% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, the lowest level since May. A lessened 24.3% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful, the fewest in three months. Just 22.1% thought jobs were hard to get, nearly the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated, and the percentage who thought that there would be more jobs backpedaled to the lowest level (13.1%) since May. Expectations for the inflation rate eased to 4.8%, and reversed the prior month's rise, while an increased 61.6% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home improved slightly to 0.8% following sharp deterioration in September. Total plans to buy a major appliance plummeted to 46.3%, the lowest since January of last year.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old improved 2.3% (3.6% y/y), but remained well below the June high. This was offset by a 9.5% decline (+2.7% y/y) in confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 fell 5.6% (-6.4% y/y) to the lowest level since May.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
|Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)||Oct||Sep||Aug||Y/Y %||2015||2014||2013|
|Consumer Confidence Index||98.6||103.5||101.8||-0.5||98.0||86.9||73.2|
|Consumer Confidence By Age Group|
|Under 35 Years||119.1||116.4||122.5||3.6||116.0||106.6||93.1|
|Aged 35-54 Years||103.1||109.2||113.0||-6.4||103.9||92.4||76.8|
|Over 55 Years||84.5||93.4||84.5||2.7||84.1||73.8||61.2|