Recent Updates
- ** New Zealand's Jobs Online Report has been delayed by the source, MBIE, until 6:00 PM ET 4/26.**
- Singapore: IP (Mar); Brunei: International Trade (Dec); Myanmar: Overseas Employment (Aug); Korea: GDP (Q1); China: Gini Coefficient (2017), Construction Output Value (Q1), Government Finance, Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expenditure (Mar)
- New Zealand: Tourism Expnediture, Foreign Currency Assets & Liabilities (Mar); Australia: Labor Force Survey (Mar),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller October 25, 2016
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence index for October declined 4.7% (-0.5% y/y) to 98.6, the first decline in three months. A 2.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 70.0% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The index of confidence about the present situation fell 5.7% (+5.2% y/y), the first decline in five months. The future confidence index was off 3.8% (-5.4% y/y), down for the first time in three months.
A sharply reduced 26.2% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, the lowest level since May. A lessened 24.3% of individuals thought that jobs were plentiful, the fewest in three months. Just 22.1% thought jobs were hard to get, nearly the least of the expansion.
The outlook for future business conditions deteriorated, and the percentage who thought that there would be more jobs backpedaled to the lowest level (13.1%) since May. Expectations for the inflation rate eased to 4.8%, and reversed the prior month's rise, while an increased 61.6% thought that interest rates would rise. Plans to buy a new home improved slightly to 0.8% following sharp deterioration in September. Total plans to buy a major appliance plummeted to 46.3%, the lowest since January of last year.
By age group, confidence amongst individuals under 35 years old improved 2.3% (3.6% y/y), but remained well below the June high. This was offset by a 9.5% decline (+2.7% y/y) in confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over. Confidence amongst those aged 35-54 fell 5.6% (-6.4% y/y) to the lowest level since May.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 98.6 | 103.5 | 101.8 | -0.5 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
Present Situation | 120.6 | 127.9 | 125.3 | 5.2 | 111.7 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
Expectations | 83.9 | 87.2 | 86.1 | -5.4 | 88.8 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | 119.1 | 116.4 | 122.5 | 3.6 | 116.0 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
Aged 35-54 Years | 103.1 | 109.2 | 113.0 | -6.4 | 103.9 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
Over 55 Years | 84.5 | 93.4 | 84.5 | 2.7 | 84.1 | 73.8 | 61.2 |