- US: IIP (Q4)
- Zambia: BOP (Q4); Israel: Credit Card Purchases (Feb); UAE: CPI (Feb); Saudi Arabia: GDP (Q4-Prelim)
- Hungary: Employment (Feb); Bulgaria: Business Survey (Mar); Kazakhstan: Consolidated Budget (Feb)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar); Iceland: PPI (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller October 28, 2016
Economic growth improved to 2.9% (1.5% y/y) during Q3'16 following a 1.4% Q2 rise. It was the strongest increase in two years. A 2.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey.
Improvement in the foreign trade deficit had the largest positive effect on growth. The 0.8 percentage point addition from net exports reflected a 10.0% rise (2.0% y/y) in exports which followed a 1.8% gain. Goods exports rose 14.5% (2.7% y/y) and services exports improved 2.1% (0.7% y/y). Imports increased 2.4% (0.7% y/y), powered by an 8.8% jump (3.2% y/y) in services while goods imports ticked 0.9% higher (0.1% y/y).
Inventories added 0.6 percentage points to economic growth last quarter. That followed five consecutive quarters of subtraction.
Domestic final sales growth decelerated to 1.4% (1.7% y/y) from 2.4%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures fell to 2.1% (2.6% y/y), half the growth in the prior quarter. Durable goods spending advanced 9.5% (5.6% y/y), about as it did in Q2. Motor vehicle spending growth nearly doubled to 16.2% (3.3% y/y. Furniture & appliance spending growth eased to 4.9% (6.3% y/y) and purchases of recreational goods & vehicles fell to 9.0% growth (9.5% y/y). Expenditures on nondurable declined 1.4% (+1.8% y/y) after a 5.7% rise, owing to a 3.5% drop (+0.2% y/y) in gasoline & energy goods purchases. Apparel spending also eased 0.6% (+1.0% y/y), but foods & beverage purchases rose 1.7% (3.0% y/y). Services spending increased 2.1% (2.3% y/y), down from 3.0% in Q2. Housing & utilities spending rose 2.4% (1.4% y/y) after a 4.5% jump, and growth in health care expenditures fell to 2.3% (4.7% y/y) from 7.3%. Restaurant & hotel spending growth picked up slightly to 3.2% (3.0% y/y).
Business fixed investment grew 1.1% (-1.2% y/y) after a similar gain in Q2. These increases followed two quarters of decline. The turnaround reflected 5.4% growth (-3.3% y/y) in structures investment while spending on equipment fell 2.7% (-4.5% y/y), the fourth straight quarter of decline. Transportation equipment investment accounted for the latest drop, off 15.1% (-10.0% y/y), while information processing equipment grew 10.2% (0.7% y/y). Industrial equipment investment also improved 1.1% (4.1% y/y).
Residential investment declined 6.2% (+1.0% y/y), after a 7.8% fall.
Government spending ticked 0.5% higher (0.3% y/y) after a 1.7% drop. National defense spending increased 2.1% (0.0% y/y) following two quarters of decline. Federal nondefense spending grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y) after a 3.8% rise. State & local investment eased 0.7% (-0.1% y/y), the third decline in the last four quarters.
The GDP price index increased 1.5% (1.3% y/y) following a 2.3% rise. A 1.4% advance was expected. The PCE price index rose 1.4% (1.0% y/y) while excluding food & energy, it increased 1.7% (1.7% y/y). The business fixed investment price index grew 0.3% (0.4% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. The residential investment price index increased 5.8% (3.9% y/y), about as it did in Q2.
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA
|Chained 2009 $ (%, AR)||Q3'16||Q2'16||Q1'16||Q3'16 Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Gross Domestic Product||2.9||1.4||0.8||1.5||2.6||2.4||1.7|
|Foreign Trade Effect||0.8||0.2||0.0||0.1||-0.7||-0.1||0.3|
|Domestic Final Sales||1.4||2.4||1.2||1.7||3.1||2.6||1.2|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||2.1||4.3||1.6||2.6||3.2||2.9||1.5|
|Business Fixed Investment||1.1||1.0||-3.4||-1.2||2.1||6.0||3.5|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||1.4||2.0||0.3||1.0||0.3||1.5||1.3|