- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2016
Consumer spending recovered last month following a brief pullback. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.1% dip during August. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Adjusted for higher prices, spending rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. A 1.8% rebound in real durable goods spending led last month's rise as motor vehicle purchases recovered 3.5% (3.4% y/y) after a 4.7% drop. Recreational product & vehicle outlays jumped 1.5% (9.6% y/y) after a 0.5% fall. Home furnishings & appliance spending gained 0.7% (6.5% y/y) on the heels of two straight declines. Nondurable goods purchases eased 0.1% (+1.5% y/y) despite a 0.5% rise (0.9% y/y) in clothing purchases. Real services outlays improved 0.1% (2.2% y/y) for the third straight month. A 1.2% rebound (3.5% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations spending (3.5% y/y) led the gain after a 0.2% dip. A 1.1% rise (0.2% y/y) in recreation services outlays followed after a 1.6% decline. Housing & utilities outlays declined 0.6% (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.4% increase.
Personal income posted a 0.3% increase (3.2% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while adjusted for higher prices, take home pay improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y).
Wages & salaries rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Proprietors' income jumped 0.6% (2.0% y/y), as did rental income (5.9% y/y). Receipts on assets improved 0.2% (0.2% y/y) after a 0.5% rise, while transfer receipts gained 0.1% (3.5% y/y). That reflected a third consecutive 0.3% rise in Medicare payments (5.3% y/y). Social Security payments receipts increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y), as they did in August. Unemployment insurance benefits declined 3.6% (-8.2% y/y) with the improved job market.
The personal savings rate eased to 5.7% from 5.8%, and it remained below the high of 6.2% in March. The level of personal savings eased 0.1% y/y.
The chain price index increased 0.2% (1.2% y/y) for a second straight month, while excluding food & energy prices notched 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. A 5.1% increase (-6.3% y/y) in gasoline prices led the index higher. Clothing prices offset the rise with a 0.5% decline, and they were off 0.5% y/y as well. The durable goods price index moved 0.5% lower (-2.6% y/y), down for the seventh month this year. A 0.9% decline in recreational goods prices (-5.7% y/y) paced the fall. The services price index increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) as it has in all but two months this year. Food prices eased 0.1% (-1.7% y/y), also down for the seventh month this year.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database. Further detail is in USNA.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Sep Y/Y||2015||2014||2013|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.5||-0.1||0.3||3.7||3.5||4.4||2.8|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.1||0.5||3.8||5.1||5.1||2.7|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.3||0.2||0.4||3.4||3.8||5.1||-0.1|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.7||5.8||5.6||5.9
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.2||0.2||0.0||1.2||0.3||1.5||1.3|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.1||1.7||1.4||1.6||1.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||0.3||-0.2||0.3||2.4||3.2||2.9||1.5|
|Real Disposable Income||0.1||0.0||0.3||2.1||3.5||3.5||-1.4|