Recent Updates

  • Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
  • US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
  • CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
  • CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
  • France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
  • US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
  • US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
  • Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Personal Spending Rebounds Along With Income
by Tom Moeller  October 31, 2016

Consumer spending recovered last month following a brief pullback. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.1% dip during August. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Adjusted for higher prices, spending rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. A 1.8% rebound in real durable goods spending led last month's rise as motor vehicle purchases recovered 3.5% (3.4% y/y) after a 4.7% drop. Recreational product & vehicle outlays jumped 1.5% (9.6% y/y) after a 0.5% fall. Home furnishings & appliance spending gained 0.7% (6.5% y/y) on the heels of two straight declines. Nondurable goods purchases eased 0.1% (+1.5% y/y) despite a 0.5% rise (0.9% y/y) in clothing purchases. Real services outlays improved 0.1% (2.2% y/y) for the third straight month. A 1.2% rebound (3.5% y/y) in restaurant & accommodations spending (3.5% y/y) led the gain after a 0.2% dip. A 1.1% rise (0.2% y/y) in recreation services outlays followed after a 1.6% decline. Housing & utilities outlays declined 0.6% (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.4% increase.

Personal income posted a 0.3% increase (3.2% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while adjusted for higher prices, take home pay improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y).

Wages & salaries rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Proprietors' income jumped 0.6% (2.0% y/y), as did rental income (5.9% y/y). Receipts on assets improved 0.2% (0.2% y/y) after a 0.5% rise, while transfer receipts gained 0.1% (3.5% y/y). That reflected a third consecutive 0.3% rise in Medicare payments (5.3% y/y). Social Security payments receipts increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y), as they did in August. Unemployment insurance benefits declined 3.6% (-8.2% y/y) with the improved job market.

The personal savings rate eased to 5.7% from 5.8%, and it remained below the high of 6.2% in March. The level of personal savings eased 0.1% y/y.

The chain price index increased 0.2% (1.2% y/y) for a second straight month, while excluding food & energy prices notched 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. A 5.1% increase (-6.3% y/y) in gasoline prices led the index higher. Clothing prices offset the rise with a 0.5% decline, and they were off 0.5% y/y as well. The durable goods price index moved 0.5% lower (-2.6% y/y), down for the seventh month this year. A 0.9% decline in recreational goods prices (-5.7% y/y) paced the fall. The services price index increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) as it has in all but two months this year. Food prices eased 0.1% (-1.7% y/y), also down for the seventh month this year.

The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database. Further detail is in USNA.

Personal Income & Outlays (%) Sep Aug Jul Sep Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.5 -0.1 0.3 3.7 3.5 4.4 2.8
Personal Income 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.2 4.4 5.2 1.1
  Wages & Salaries 0.3 0.1 0.5 3.8 5.1 5.1 2.7
Disposable Personal Income 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.4 3.8 5.1 -0.1
Personal Saving Rate 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.9
(Sep. '15)
5.8 5.6 5.0
PCE Chain Price Index 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.3 1.5 1.3
  Less Food & Energy 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.3 -0.2 0.3 2.4 3.2 2.9 1.5
Real Disposable Income 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 3.5 -1.4
close
large image