- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller November 1, 2016
Factory sector activity continued to improve during October. The ISM composite index of factory sector activity rose to 51.9 from an unrevised 51.5 in September. It was the seventh month this year when the index was above break-even. The latest figure compared to an expected 51.7 in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the q/q change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the component series was uneven. Production rose moderately, and recovered two months of decline. The employment index increased above 50 for the first time since June. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The higher supplier delivery index suggested the slowest product delivery speeds since June. To the downside was the new orders index which gave up half of its September increase. Continued inventory decumulation was suggested by the index falling to the lowest level since May.
The separate prices paid figure strengthened to 54.5, up from 53.0 during the prior two months. It remained below, however, the May high of 63.5. Twenty-five percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 16 percent paid less.
Amongst the other ISM series, the export index improved slightly to 52.5 and remained up versus the February low of 46.5. The imports index increased to 52.0, the highest level in three months. The order backlog index reversed its September gain.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates increase. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Mfg (SA)||Oct||Sep||Aug||Oct '15||2015||2014||2013|
|Prices Paid Index (NSA)||54.5||53.0||53.0||39.0||39.8||55.6||53.8|