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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gain Eases
by Tom Moeller  November 2, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 147,000 increase (1.9% y/y) in October nonfarm private sector payroll employment following a 202,000 September addition, revised from 154,000. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 175,000 per month, down from 209,000 averaged during 2015, and 237,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 34,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 54,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 120,000 averaged in Q4'14. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 48,000 (1.6% y/y) compared to a 80,000 in September, both less than the 112,000 averaged in Q1'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 64,000 rise in jobs (2.6% y/y), up from the 19,000 averaged in Q2'15.

Service-producing payrolls increased 165,000 (2.2% y/y) after a 174,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 69,000 (2.9% y/y). Financial activity payrolls increased 18,000 (2.2% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities jobs improved 17,000 (1.6% y/y).

Goods-producing jobs declined 18,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 28,000 increase. The construction industry lost 15,000 jobs (+1.3% y/y), the second decline in three months. Hiring in the factory sector slipped 1,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 3,000 rise.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Oct Sep Aug Oct Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 147 202 162 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 34 54 61 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 48 80 49 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 64 69 52 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.5
Goods-Producing -18 28 -31 -0.2 1.8 2.4 1.8
  Construction -15 27 -9 1.3 4.5 4.7 3.7
  Manufacturing -1 3 -16 -0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8
Service-Producing 165 174 193 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9
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