- Weekly: **Unemployment Initial Claims Data have been revised**
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Feb)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- CPB World Trade Monitor (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Feb)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade Revisions, Advance Durable Goods (Feb)
- Manufacturing Survey - Markit US (Flash - Mar), Composite Survey - US (Flash - Mar), Services Survey - US (Flash - Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Correction to Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
The Department of Labor has issued a correction to yesterday's annual revision to seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims...
EMU PMIs Are Off to the Races...Farewell Mediocrity?
The PMI rankings for the manufacturing and service sector PMIs in the EMU are suddenly off the chart...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve While Prices Decline
Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1% (12.8% y/y) during February to 592,000 units (AR)...
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 258,000 (-3.0% y/y) during the week ended March 18...
U.K. Retail Looks Less Bulletproof
For the most part, the assessments embodied in the March survey from the UK's CBI are being taken as being upbeat...
by Tom Moeller November 3, 2016
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 54.8 during October from an unrevised 57.1 in September. The decline disappointed expectations for 56.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ISM data are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure that was released Tuesday. This Composite fell to 54.5 from 56.4. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the nonmanufacturing components fell last month. The business activity index declined to 57.7, following a sharp increase to 60.3. New orders similarly fell to 57.7 from 60.0. Employment fell to 53.1 following the prior month's surge to 57.2. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. The supplier deliveries index eased to 50.5, down sharply from the June high of 54.0.
The prices paid series increased 56.6, its highest level since August 2014. Thirteen percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 6 percent paid less.
The export order series eased to 55.5 following a jump to 56.5. The imports series also increased to 53.0, a three-month high. The order backlog measure held steady at 52.0 following a sharp September increase. Each of these last few readings is not seasonally adjusted.
The figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
|ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)||Oct||Sep||Aug||Oct'15||2015||2014||2013|
|Composite Diffusion Index||54.8||57.1||51.4||58.3||57.1||56.2||54.6|
|Supplier Deliveries (NSA)||50.5||51.0||51.5||52.0||52.5||51.8||51.7|