- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey, Public Finance (Mar)
- Spain: Mortgage Market (Jan), Order Book Forecast (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey Press Release (Mar)
- Germany: Business Registrations & Deregistrations (Dec), Import & Export Prices (Feb), IAB Labor Market Barometer (Mar)
- Vietnam: GDP (Q1), CPI, IP, International Trade, Passenger & Cargo Traffic Statistics, Manufacturing Sales and Inventories, International Visitor Arrivals (Mar); Korea: Economic Sentiment
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Remain Under Pressure
Regular gasoline prices held steady at $2.32 per gallon last week (12.1% y/y) for the third straight week...
German Federal Debt Levels Fall
German debt level fell outright in Q4 2016 as the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP also fell...
NABE 2018 Forecast: Modest Improvement in Economic Growth & Higher Inflation
The NABE expects 2.5% real U.S. economic growth in 2018 compared to 2.3% forecast for 2017...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Remains Strong
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index eased during March...
EMU Money and Credit Growth Are Less Than Impressive Than Euro-PMIs
EMU nominal money supply growth is slightly higher over three months, but credit growth in the EMU is slower...
Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller November 18, 2016
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.1% during October (1.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% September increase. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The six-month change in the index fell to 1.5% (AR), well below its peak growth of 7.5% in mid-2014.
Contributing positively to the index last month were a steeper interest rate yield curve, factory sector average weekly hours, nondefense capital goods orders, factory orders for consumer goods, building permits and the leading credit index. These were offset by weaker consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, stock prices, a lower ISM new orders diffusion index and more initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The coincident index increased 0.1% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise, revised from 0.2%. Six-month growth eased to 1.6%. Each of the component series contributed positively to the index, including nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The lagging index rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% gain. Six-month growth fell to 2.5% versus a 4.9% high early last year. The change in commercial & industrial loans outstanding, the consumer installment credit/income ratio and the average duration of unemployment contributed positively to the index. The change in factory sector unit labor costs and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed negatively.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio slipped m/m to a record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
The Final Crisis Chronicle: The Panic of 1907 and the Birth of the Fed from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
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